2018 - NEMindex Projections for Week 8

The convergence is finally of a decent enough quality to start making reliable predictions for this season. It was probably good enough last week, but I was way too busy with other stuff last week and missed my window to run the necessary numbers. So here we are.  As a reminder on what this all means and how to read it, the instructions are HERE.  Instead of just putting up a few of the matchups I'm going to go ahead and put up all of them so that I can reference them on my phone throughout the week. At the top are some of particular interest. The rest are below.

- Looks like the data suggests Oklahoma will cover the spread at TCU.
- NC St and Clemson will be much closer than Vegas thinks it will be.
- LSU will cover the spread
- Ohio St will stay undefeated
- And my Utes will win at home!

If you have comments or questions please let me know @NateEMiller.

AwayHomeVegasSpread Proj.Range
Stanford Arizona St 2.5 8.2 6.9
Oklahoma TCU 7.5 17.4 7.0
Michigan Michigan St 7.0 1.2 4.7
NC St Clemson -16.5 -0.8 3.6
Colorado Washington -15.5 -13.0 1.0
Penn St Indiana 14.0 4.4 3.8
Miss. St LSU -6.5 -15.1 2.5
Oregon Washington St -1.5 -2.5 0.1
Ohio St Purdue 14.0 17.0 0.7
USC Utah -6.5 -5.5 0.9


AwayHomeVegasSpread Proj.Range
Georgia St Arkansas St -14.0 -12.8 1.7
Colorado St Boise St -23.5 -18.9 2.4
Air Force UNLV 12.5 -3.4 3.1
Tulsa Arkansas -6.0 -5.6 2.7
Illinois Wisconsin -25.0 -22.4 4.2
Maryland Iowa -11.5 -10.2 3.7
Miami (Oh) Army -7.5 -30.9 5.9
Auburn Ole Miss 4.0 -15.5 1.7
Northwestern Rutgers 20.5 13.8 7.9
Buffalo Toledo -1.5 15.2 5.6
Cincinnati Temple -3.5 11.3 1.6
North Carolina Syracuse -10.0 -32.2 1.6
Virginia Duke -7.5 -13.7 2.9
Bowling Green Ohio -16.5 -17.8 3.9
FAU Marshall 3.0 -1.8 3.7
Utah St Wyoming 15.5 32.1 11.7
Charlotte Middle Tenn -17.0 -14.9 2.8
W. Michigan C.Michigan 4.5 18.4 0.7
E. Michigan Ball St 3.0 3.9 4.3
Minnesota Nebraska -3.5 13.9 4.3
Wake Forest Florida St -10.5 -0.2 2.1
Houston Navy 13.0 16.0 3.5
Alabama Tennessee 28.5 21.8 11.0
Colorado Washington -15.5 -13.0 1.0
UTEP Louisiana Tech -23.5 -30.4 8.0
Kansas Texas Tech -20.5 -37.9 9.2
Louisiana App. St -24.5 -31.0 12.1
Akron Kent St 4.0 6.9 0.6
CCU MASS -3.5 1.8 4.1
SMU Tulane -7.0 -6.4 1.4
California Oregon St 6.5 5.3 1.8
Memphis Missouri -9.5 -16.7 6.0
Ga.Southern New Mexico St 13.0 18.5 2.3
Connecticut South Florida -32.5 -36.0 1.6
Texas St . UL-Monroe -11.0 -17.2 0.8
UCF East Carolina 21.0 25.0 4.3
UTSA Southern Miss -17.0 -9.0 2.1
Fresno St New Mexico 14.0 24.8 14.9
Rice FIU -- -27.7 6.2
North Texas UAB 1.0 -4.8 1.0
Vanderbilt Kentucky -11.0 -23.8 10.2
Old Dominion W.Kentucky -5.0 -4.4 1.5
Arizona UCLA -7.0 -3.1 0.1
Nevada Hawaii -3.5 -21.2 2.3


Largest Spread of the Week
Kansas Texas Tech -20.5 -37.9 9.2


Tightest Spread of the Week
Wake Forest Florida St -10.5 -0.2 2.1


Highest Regression Uncertainty of the Week
San Jose St San Diego St -27.5 -28.2 18.3


Least Regression Uncertainty of the Week
Arizona UCLA -7.0 -3.1 0.1

Comments

  1. How is this different than IowaHawk's marble model?

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    Replies
    1. Considerably. I am using a set of metrics that I identified and feed into an iterative multi-regression algorithm that I designed to get to a converged set of rankings each week. Every game affects every teams ranking through the connections within the network of regressions. I have been working on building the math and the code since around 2010 but have made very few edits in the past couple years. The predictions here on this post come from taking the metrics and the regressions and attempting to extrapolate them by one week into the next matchups. Some weeks it does an amazing job. Some weeks it sucks royally.

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