I know a lot of you are new here, I'm getting a lot of new viewers every week, so I just want to recap. This system, which I've been working on for ~8 years, is entirely data-driven and uses a set of metrics I've identified to measure the actual performance of all of the teams simultaneously and rank them all against each other using a multi-regression technique. If a team comes up higher than seems logical, it's not because I think they're that good, it's because something in their performance is saying they are probably better than what we are realizing yet. It may also be anomalous and they won't keep it up and will plummet in the following week. Read more
here.
Now the numbers. Despite ND having the more impressive individual win this week, they slip to 2nd behind Georgia. Georgia, can likely thank Utah for this (in part at least). Utah's win at Stanford lowered the impressiveness of ND's wins by enough that despite their win over VT, they don't look as good perhaps as we thought. LSU fell a few spots with their loss, which resulted in Florida making a big move into 10th. Alabama is still just hanging around while they play through some easier portions of their schedule and continue to win.
Utah was the biggest upward mover on the week with a +39 moving them to a tie with Colorado at 31st. Colorado is 5-0 and the last undefeated team in the PAC12 but their schedule has been pretty easy thus far (3rd easiest in FBS). Look for them to be tested vs USC this week. Michigan St had the biggest fall (-43) after losing at home to NW (oof).
As always, please feel free to engage with me on social media (
@NateEMiller) or to comment here. I'd love to answer questions about the system or why teams are where they are or what my opinions are compared to what they data says is demonstrable.
Rank | Team | W | L | Conf | RTPS | Change |
1 | Georgia | 6 | 0 | SEC | 1.000 | +3 |
2 | Notre Dame | 6 | 0 | IND | 0.993 | -1 |
3 | Clemson | 6 | 0 | ACC | 0.954 | +2 |
4 | Alabama | 6 | 0 | SEC | 0.948 | -1 |
5 | LSU | 5 | 1 | SEC | 0.893 | -3 |
6 | Ohio State | 6 | 0 | B10 | 0.878 | +3 |
7 | Kentucky | 5 | 1 | SEC | 0.853 | -1 |
8 | NC State | 5 | 0 | ACC | 0.841 | -1 |
9 | Texas | 5 | 1 | B12 | 0.837 | +10 |
10 | Florida | 5 | 1 | SEC | 0.820 | +21 |
11 | W. Virginia | 5 | 0 | B12 | 0.807 | +1 |
12 | Oklahoma | 5 | 1 | B12 | 0.803 | -1 |
13 | Michigan | 5 | 1 | B10 | 0.800 | +13 |
14 | Army | 3 | 2 | IND | 0.794 | 0 |
15 | Duke | 4 | 1 | ACC | 0.791 | +3 |
16 | Penn State | 4 | 1 | B10 | 0.786 | +7 |
17 | UCF | 5 | 0 | AAC | 0.782 | +5 |
18 | S. Carolina | 3 | 2 | SEC | 0.769 | -3 |
19 | S. Florida | 5 | 0 | AAC | 0.760 | -3 |
20 | Iowa | 4 | 1 | B10 | 0.743 | +26 |
21 | Wisconsin | 4 | 1 | B10 | 0.741 | +3 |
22 | Stanford | 4 | 2 | PAC | 0.734 | -12 |
23 | Miami (FL) | 5 | 1 | ACC | 0.731 | +6 |
24 | Wash. | 5 | 1 | PAC | 0.729 | -7 |
25 | Cincinnati | 6 | 0 | AAC | 0.706 | +11 |
26 | Texas Tech | 3 | 2 | B12 | 0.693 | +1 |
27 | San Diego St. | 4 | 1 | MWC | 0.690 | +15 |
28 | Fresno St. | 4 | 1 | MWC | 0.682 | +23 |
29 | UAB | 4 | 1 | USA | 0.676 | +36 |
30 | Coastal Caro. | 3 | 2 | SUN | 0.673 | +23 |
31 | Colorado | 5 | 0 | PAC | 0.672 | +17 |
32 | Utah | 3 | 2 | PAC | 0.672 | +39 |
33 | Miss. St. | 4 | 2 | SEC | 0.666 | +25 |
34 | Utah State | 4 | 1 | MWC | 0.665 | +29 |
35 | Troy | 5 | 1 | SUN | 0.662 | +3 |
36 | Maryland | 3 | 2 | B10 | 0.653 | -16 |
37 | Boise State | 3 | 2 | MWC | 0.653 | -24 |
38 | Wash. St. | 5 | 1 | PAC | 0.642 | +3 |
39 | USC | 3 | 2 | PAC | 0.638 | +8 |
40 | Ole Miss | 4 | 2 | SEC | 0.635 | +3 |
41 | Texas A&M | 4 | 2 | SEC | 0.635 | +21 |
42 | Georgia So. | 4 | 1 | SUN | 0.634 | +3 |
43 | Oregon | 4 | 1 | PAC | 0.628 | -6 |
44 | Buffalo | 5 | 1 | MID | 0.624 | +11 |
45 | North Texas | 5 | 1 | USA | 0.623 | -11 |
46 | Syracuse | 4 | 2 | ACC | 0.622 | -21 |
47 | Auburn | 4 | 2 | SEC | 0.620 | -17 |
48 | Vanderbilt | 3 | 3 | SEC | 0.613 | -9 |
49 | Hawaii | 6 | 1 | MWC | 0.612 | +3 |
50 | Houston | 4 | 1 | AAC | 0.611 | +10 |
51 | Mich. St. | 3 | 2 | B10 | 0.611 | -43 |
52 | App. St. | 3 | 1 | SUN | 0.608 | +4 |
53 | Indiana | 4 | 2 | B10 | 0.607 | -25 |
54 | Missouri | 3 | 2 | SEC | 0.603 | -19 |
55 | Minnesota | 3 | 2 | B10 | 0.594 | -11 |
56 | Virginia Tech | 3 | 2 | ACC | 0.593 | -23 |
57 | TCU | 3 | 2 | B12 | 0.592 | +4 |
58 | LA Tech | 3 | 2 | USA | 0.592 | -26 |
59 | Baylor | 4 | 2 | B12 | 0.591 | +5 |
60 | Mid. Tenn. | 3 | 2 | USA | 0.589 | +15 |
61 | Virginia | 3 | 2 | ACC | 0.588 | -4 |
62 | Oklahoma St. | 4 | 2 | B12 | 0.586 | -41 |
63 | BC | 4 | 2 | ACC | 0.563 | -14 |
64 | W. Michigan | 4 | 2 | MID | 0.556 | +8 |
65 | Iowa State | 2 | 3 | B12 | 0.554 | +15 |
66 | Arizona St. | 3 | 3 | PAC | 0.551 | -12 |
67 | Arkansas St. | 3 | 2 | SUN | 0.549 | 0 |
68 | BYU | 3 | 3 | IND | 0.541 | -18 |
69 | Temple | 3 | 3 | AAC | 0.539 | -1 |
70 | Toledo | 3 | 2 | MID | 0.537 | +4 |
71 | Marshall | 3 | 2 | USA | 0.518 | -12 |
72 | California | 3 | 2 | PAC | 0.516 | -32 |
73 | Illinois | 3 | 2 | B10 | 0.515 | +6 |
74 | Florida Int. | 3 | 2 | USA | 0.509 | -4 |
75 | Northwestern | 2 | 3 | B10 | 0.505 | +23 |
76 | Wake Forest | 3 | 3 | ACC | 0.502 | -10 |
77 | Georgia Tech | 3 | 3 | ACC | 0.499 | +9 |
78 | Florida Atl. | 3 | 3 | USA | 0.499 | +9 |
79 | Ohio | 3 | 2 | MID | 0.499 | +2 |
80 | New Mexico | 3 | 2 | MWC | 0.497 | +12 |
81 | Pittsburgh | 3 | 3 | ACC | 0.495 | +12 |
82 | Tennessee | 2 | 3 | SEC | 0.492 | -4 |
83 | Florida St. | 3 | 3 | ACC | 0.490 | -14 |
84 | Memphis | 4 | 2 | AAC | 0.490 | -8 |
85 | Tulane | 2 | 4 | AAC | 0.467 | -8 |
86 | Arizona | 3 | 3 | PAC | 0.461 | +15 |
87 | Kansas St. | 2 | 4 | B12 | 0.448 | +1 |
88 | N. Illinois | 3 | 3 | MID | 0.444 | +16 |
89 | Nevada | 3 | 3 | MWC | 0.429 | 0 |
90 | Liberty | 2 | 3 | IND | 0.423 | -17 |
91 | Purdue | 2 | 3 | B10 | 0.422 | -6 |
92 | UL Lafayette | 2 | 3 | SUN | 0.415 | +16 |
93 | E. Mich. | 2 | 4 | MID | 0.410 | +1 |
94 | SMU | 2 | 4 | AAC | 0.407 | +1 |
95 | Miami (OH) | 2 | 4 | MID | 0.405 | +14 |
96 | Air Force | 2 | 3 | MWC | 0.405 | +22 |
97 | Wyoming | 2 | 4 | MWC | 0.390 | -7 |
98 | Georgia St. | 2 | 4 | SUN | 0.389 | +1 |
99 | Colorado St. | 2 | 4 | MWC | 0.389 | +4 |
100 | E. Carolina | 2 | 3 | AAC | 0.387 | -17 |
101 | Kansas | 2 | 4 | B12 | 0.372 | +1 |
102 | S. Miss. | 2 | 2 | USA | 0.363 | -5 |
103 | UMASS | 2 | 5 | MID | 0.356 | +2 |
104 | UNLV | 2 | 3 | MWC | 0.355 | -13 |
105 | Navy | 2 | 3 | AAC | 0.355 | -23 |
106 | Akron | 2 | 2 | MID | 0.347 | -22 |
107 | UTSA | 3 | 3 | USA | 0.345 | +10 |
108 | Louisville | 2 | 4 | ACC | 0.334 | -12 |
109 | UCLA | 0 | 5 | PAC | 0.333 | +1 |
110 | UL Monroe | 2 | 4 | SUN | 0.327 | -3 |
111 | Charlotte | 2 | 3 | USA | 0.323 | +2 |
112 | NM St. | 2 | 4 | IND | 0.320 | +15 |
113 | Tulsa | 1 | 4 | AAC | 0.318 | +2 |
114 | N. Carolina | 1 | 3 | ACC | 0.314 | -3 |
115 | Connecticut | 1 | 5 | AAC | 0.309 | -15 |
116 | Arkansas | 1 | 5 | SEC | 0.296 | +4 |
117 | S. Alabama | 1 | 5 | SUN | 0.285 | -1 |
118 | Ball State | 2 | 4 | MID | 0.274 | -12 |
119 | Oregon St. | 1 | 5 | PAC | 0.263 | +5 |
120 | Nebraska | 0 | 5 | B10 | 0.259 | +6 |
121 | W. Kentucky | 1 | 4 | USA | 0.257 | -7 |
122 | Old Dominion | 1 | 5 | USA | 0.246 | -10 |
123 | C. Mich. | 1 | 5 | MID | 0.246 | -1 |
124 | Rutgers | 1 | 5 | B10 | 0.232 | -5 |
125 | Kent State | 1 | 5 | MID | 0.231 | 0 |
126 | Rice | 1 | 5 | USA | 0.210 | -5 |
127 | San Jose St. | 0 | 5 | MWC | 0.203 | -4 |
128 | Bowling Grn | 1 | 5 | MID | 0.197 | 0 |
129 | Texas State | 1 | 4 | SUN | 0.088 | 0 |
130 | UTEP | 0 | 6 | USA | 0.000 | 0 |
Hardest Schedule Played per Team:
UCLA | 24.0 |
S. Carolina | 28.0 |
Nebraska | 38.2 |
Army | 42.0 |
Stanford | 45.7 |
Vanderbilt | 50.2 |
Iowa State | 51.4 |
LSU | 51.5 |
USC | 51.8 |
Maryland | 54.8 |
: | : |
: | : |
UTEP | 96.8 |
UTSA | 99.5 |
UCF | 99.8 |
Hawaii | 99.9 |
Cincinnati | 102.3 |
North Texas | 103.2 |
S. Miss. | 103.5 |
Colorado | 105.0 |
Memphis | 108.5 |
Texas State | 114.2 |
Average Rank per Conference:
SEC | 36.1 |
B12 | 48.9 |
B10 | 53.9 |
PAC | 56.8 |
IND | 57.2 |
ACC | 58.1 |
MWC | 72.3 |
AAC | 73.0 |
SUN | 77.2 |
USA | 88.1 |
MID | 95.1 |
Hardest Cumulative Schedules Played per Conference:
SEC | 59.7 |
IND | 62.9 |
B12 | 66.8 |
B10 | 67.3 |
PAC | 70.6 |
ACC | 74.5 |
MID | 80.1 |
SUN | 80.3 |
MWC | 82.4 |
AAC | 84.0 |
USA | 86.2 |
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