Welcome to the first posting of the #NEMIndex for the 2019 NCAA Football season!
For those that are new here, I would send you HERE for a bit of context on this ranking system I've been working on for ~10 years. Basically I am running a massive recursion algorithm that ranks all of the teams against all of the other teams based primarily on who each has beaten and lost to and how well they performed in each game. So as new data gets added each week the rankings should become more and more "correct." What you'll be seeing here isn't my idea of who is best, but is simply a ranking of who has "performed best" to this point in the season. Inevitably this means the system is a bit noisy and perhaps unintuitive early in the season, but it will sort itself out to a final answer which is essentially inarguably correct. ;)
I had the pleasure of being at last night's Utah game where we beat the Washington State Cougars handily. Other than Utah's fluke last week AT USC, I think we have some potential this season and may make the conference championship again. It's far too early, and am too pessimistic, to start talking Rose Bowl. But with the win Utah climbed 2 spots to 38th (granted last weeks unpublished rankings were more odd than these so that means very little).
This should be thought of as sort of the initial condition for the system for this season going forward.
But based on what we've got so far, Rice has played the hardest schedule so far. No PAC-12 teams make the top 10 for hardest individual schedules, but as a conference they have played the hardest collective schedules of any. Unfortunately, some of the losses within that prevent them from making it to the top of the list of highest average rank for a conference, which goes to the Big12 as of now.
Things are going to change a lot in the next few weeks I suspect, but here's to another great season of college football!
If you have any comments or feedback or see mistakes of any sort please let me know (@NateEMiller). #GoUtes.
Hardest Schedule Played per Team:
Average Rank per Conference:
Hardest Cumulative Schedules Played per Conference:
I had the pleasure of being at last night's Utah game where we beat the Washington State Cougars handily. Other than Utah's fluke last week AT USC, I think we have some potential this season and may make the conference championship again. It's far too early, and am too pessimistic, to start talking Rose Bowl. But with the win Utah climbed 2 spots to 38th (granted last weeks unpublished rankings were more odd than these so that means very little).
This should be thought of as sort of the initial condition for the system for this season going forward.
But based on what we've got so far, Rice has played the hardest schedule so far. No PAC-12 teams make the top 10 for hardest individual schedules, but as a conference they have played the hardest collective schedules of any. Unfortunately, some of the losses within that prevent them from making it to the top of the list of highest average rank for a conference, which goes to the Big12 as of now.
Things are going to change a lot in the next few weeks I suspect, but here's to another great season of college football!
If you have any comments or feedback or see mistakes of any sort please let me know (@NateEMiller). #GoUtes.
| Rank | Team | W | L | Conf | Index | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | 5 | 0 | B10 | 1.000 | +2 |
| 2 | Auburn | 5 | 0 | SEC | 0.950 | 0 |
| 3 | Alabama | 5 | 0 | SEC | 0.802 | +3 |
| 4 | Boise State | 4 | 0 | MWC | 0.801 | 0 |
| 5 | Notre Dame | 3 | 1 | IND | 0.779 | +9 |
| 6 | Wisconsin | 4 | 0 | B10 | 0.778 | -5 |
| 7 | Georgia | 4 | 0 | SEC | 0.775 | +8 |
| 8 | SMU | 5 | 0 | AAC | 0.771 | +2 |
| 9 | Penn State | 4 | 0 | B10 | 0.768 | -1 |
| 10 | Clemson | 5 | 0 | ACC | 0.765 | -5 |
| 11 | LSU | 4 | 0 | SEC | 0.731 | +2 |
| 12 | Iowa | 4 | 0 | B10 | 0.730 | -3 |
| 13 | Arizona St. | 4 | 1 | PAC | 0.727 | +11 |
| 14 | Wash. | 4 | 1 | PAC | 0.721 | +3 |
| 15 | Texas | 3 | 1 | B12 | 0.719 | +4 |
| 16 | Mich. St. | 4 | 1 | B10 | 0.698 | +12 |
| 17 | Cincinnati | 3 | 1 | AAC | 0.692 | +42 |
| 18 | App. St. | 4 | 0 | SUN | 0.688 | -2 |
| 19 | Oklahoma | 4 | 0 | B12 | 0.679 | +13 |
| 20 | Memphis | 4 | 0 | AAC | 0.670 | +3 |
| 21 | Oregon | 3 | 1 | PAC | 0.667 | 0 |
| 22 | Oklahoma St. | 4 | 1 | B12 | 0.664 | +13 |
| 23 | Colorado | 3 | 1 | PAC | 0.653 | +6 |
| 24 | Wake Forest | 5 | 0 | ACC | 0.648 | +1 |
| 25 | Air Force | 3 | 1 | MWC | 0.646 | +14 |
| 26 | Miss. St. | 3 | 2 | SEC | 0.645 | -15 |
| 27 | Hawaii | 4 | 1 | MWC | 0.643 | +20 |
| 28 | Missouri | 3 | 1 | SEC | 0.642 | -2 |
| 29 | California | 4 | 1 | PAC | 0.626 | -17 |
| 30 | Florida | 5 | 0 | SEC | 0.625 | -10 |
| 31 | Virginia | 4 | 1 | ACC | 0.624 | -13 |
| 32 | Minnesota | 4 | 0 | B10 | 0.616 | -2 |
| 33 | UCF | 4 | 1 | AAC | 0.613 | +10 |
| 34 | Michigan | 3 | 1 | B10 | 0.609 | -7 |
| 35 | Kansas St. | 3 | 1 | B12 | 0.602 | -28 |
| 36 | Baylor | 4 | 0 | B12 | 0.598 | +5 |
| 37 | Duke | 3 | 1 | ACC | 0.589 | +11 |
| 38 | Utah | 4 | 1 | PAC | 0.588 | +2 |
| 39 | UL Lafayette | 4 | 1 | SUN | 0.579 | +10 |
| 40 | TCU | 3 | 1 | B12 | 0.576 | +13 |
| 41 | Utah State | 3 | 1 | MWC | 0.573 | -5 |
| 42 | Wyoming | 4 | 1 | MWC | 0.573 | +4 |
| 43 | W. Virginia | 3 | 1 | B12 | 0.571 | -12 |
| 44 | Florida St. | 3 | 2 | ACC | 0.571 | +28 |
| 45 | Tulane | 3 | 1 | AAC | 0.566 | +10 |
| 46 | Navy | 2 | 1 | AAC | 0.559 | -24 |
| 47 | Arizona | 3 | 1 | PAC | 0.554 | -3 |
| 48 | Tulsa | 2 | 2 | AAC | 0.542 | +6 |
| 49 | USC | 3 | 2 | PAC | 0.534 | -7 |
| 50 | Nebraska | 3 | 2 | B10 | 0.533 | -12 |
| 51 | E. Mich. | 3 | 1 | MID | 0.532 | -17 |
| 52 | Syracuse | 3 | 2 | ACC | 0.530 | +10 |
| 53 | Maryland | 2 | 2 | B10 | 0.530 | -8 |
| 54 | Texas A&M | 3 | 2 | SEC | 0.526 | +19 |
| 55 | Pittsburgh | 3 | 2 | ACC | 0.522 | +9 |
| 56 | LA Tech | 4 | 1 | USA | 0.515 | +9 |
| 57 | Arkansas St. | 3 | 2 | SUN | 0.514 | +20 |
| 58 | Iowa State | 2 | 2 | B12 | 0.512 | -7 |
| 59 | Florida Atl. | 3 | 2 | USA | 0.503 | +29 |
| 60 | Army | 3 | 1 | IND | 0.501 | +3 |
| 61 | Indiana | 3 | 2 | B10 | 0.495 | -9 |
| 62 | W. Michigan | 3 | 2 | MID | 0.492 | +24 |
| 63 | San Diego St. | 3 | 1 | MWC | 0.489 | +5 |
| 64 | S. Miss. | 3 | 2 | USA | 0.483 | +3 |
| 65 | Kentucky | 2 | 3 | SEC | 0.482 | -32 |
| 66 | Liberty | 3 | 2 | IND | 0.481 | +26 |
| 67 | NC State | 3 | 2 | ACC | 0.476 | -17 |
| 68 | Temple | 3 | 1 | AAC | 0.476 | +6 |
| 69 | Louisville | 2 | 2 | ACC | 0.474 | +24 |
| 70 | Kent State | 2 | 2 | MID | 0.473 | +13 |
| 71 | Toledo | 3 | 1 | MID | 0.472 | +5 |
| 72 | Miami (OH) | 2 | 3 | MID | 0.472 | +24 |
| 73 | N. Carolina | 2 | 3 | ACC | 0.469 | -3 |
| 74 | Coastal Caro. | 3 | 2 | SUN | 0.465 | -17 |
| 75 | Marshall | 2 | 2 | USA | 0.457 | -15 |
| 76 | UAB | 3 | 1 | USA | 0.456 | -39 |
| 77 | Nevada | 3 | 2 | MWC | 0.447 | -16 |
| 78 | Texas Tech | 2 | 2 | B12 | 0.439 | -12 |
| 79 | Ole Miss | 2 | 3 | SEC | 0.428 | -8 |
| 80 | BC | 3 | 2 | ACC | 0.427 | -24 |
| 81 | Miami (FL) | 2 | 2 | ACC | 0.423 | -6 |
| 82 | Wash. St. | 3 | 2 | PAC | 0.422 | -2 |
| 83 | BYU | 2 | 3 | IND | 0.418 | -5 |
| 84 | Fresno St. | 2 | 2 | MWC | 0.410 | +13 |
| 85 | Kansas | 2 | 3 | B12 | 0.408 | -27 |
| 86 | W. Kentucky | 2 | 2 | USA | 0.403 | +36 |
| 87 | E. Carolina | 3 | 2 | AAC | 0.402 | +2 |
| 88 | San Jose St. | 2 | 2 | MWC | 0.399 | -7 |
| 89 | Houston | 2 | 3 | AAC | 0.397 | +19 |
| 90 | Illinois | 2 | 2 | B10 | 0.396 | 0 |
| 91 | Virginia Tech | 2 | 2 | ACC | 0.394 | -22 |
| 92 | S. Carolina | 2 | 3 | SEC | 0.392 | +18 |
| 93 | Buffalo | 2 | 3 | MID | 0.390 | -9 |
| 94 | New Mexico | 2 | 2 | MWC | 0.386 | -12 |
| 95 | Texas State | 2 | 3 | SUN | 0.385 | +18 |
| 96 | Stanford | 2 | 3 | PAC | 0.383 | +11 |
| 97 | Charlotte | 2 | 3 | USA | 0.381 | -12 |
| 98 | Georgia So. | 1 | 3 | SUN | 0.371 | -4 |
| 99 | UCLA | 1 | 4 | PAC | 0.361 | -1 |
| 100 | Troy | 2 | 2 | SUN | 0.359 | -13 |
| 101 | Purdue | 1 | 3 | B10 | 0.356 | +8 |
| 102 | UL Monroe | 2 | 2 | SUN | 0.356 | +12 |
| 103 | Georgia St. | 2 | 2 | SUN | 0.355 | +8 |
| 104 | Mid. Tenn. | 1 | 3 | USA | 0.352 | +2 |
| 105 | North Texas | 2 | 3 | USA | 0.350 | -26 |
| 106 | C. Mich. | 2 | 3 | MID | 0.342 | -15 |
| 107 | S. Florida | 1 | 3 | AAC | 0.339 | -12 |
| 108 | Northwestern | 1 | 3 | B10 | 0.329 | +9 |
| 109 | Rutgers | 1 | 3 | B10 | 0.314 | -9 |
| 110 | Oregon St. | 1 | 3 | PAC | 0.302 | -8 |
| 111 | Arkansas | 2 | 3 | SEC | 0.299 | -12 |
| 112 | Vanderbilt | 1 | 3 | SEC | 0.296 | +15 |
| 113 | Rice | 0 | 5 | USA | 0.287 | +3 |
| 114 | Florida Int. | 1 | 3 | USA | 0.287 | +11 |
| 115 | Ohio | 1 | 3 | MID | 0.286 | +8 |
| 116 | Georgia Tech | 1 | 3 | ACC | 0.282 | -12 |
| 117 | S. Alabama | 1 | 4 | SUN | 0.273 | -16 |
| 118 | Ball State | 1 | 3 | MID | 0.266 | 0 |
| 119 | Bowling Grn | 1 | 3 | MID | 0.264 | 0 |
| 120 | N. Illinois | 1 | 3 | MID | 0.259 | -15 |
| 121 | Tennessee | 1 | 3 | SEC | 0.258 | 0 |
| 122 | Old Dominion | 1 | 3 | USA | 0.254 | -19 |
| 123 | UTSA | 1 | 3 | USA | 0.253 | -8 |
| 124 | Connecticut | 1 | 3 | AAC | 0.240 | -4 |
| 125 | Colorado St. | 1 | 4 | MWC | 0.237 | -1 |
| 126 | UTEP | 1 | 3 | USA | 0.212 | -14 |
| 127 | UNLV | 1 | 3 | MWC | 0.201 | +1 |
| 128 | NM St. | 0 | 5 | IND | 0.146 | -2 |
| 129 | UMASS | 1 | 4 | MID | 0.037 | +1 |
| 130 | Akron | 0 | 5 | MID | 0.000 | -1 |
Hardest Schedule Played per Team:
| Rice | 38.2 |
|---|---|
| Miss. St. | 41.0 |
| Tulsa | 42.0 |
| Auburn | 43.2 |
| N. Carolina | 45.0 |
| UCLA | 45.6 |
| Notre Dame | 50.3 |
| Texas | 50.5 |
| Miami (OH) | 50.8 |
| Ohio State | 51.8 |
| : | : |
| : | : |
| San Diego St. | 99.8 |
| Akron | 100.2 |
| Army | 100.3 |
| Toledo | 101.0 |
| Georgia St. | 102.3 |
| Minnesota | 103.5 |
| Florida | 105.8 |
| Baylor | 106.3 |
| UMASS | 108.2 |
| UAB | 116.0 |
Average Rank per Conference:
| B12 | 43.1 |
|---|---|
| B10 | 48.7 |
| PAC | 51.8 |
| SEC | 52.9 |
| AAC | 57.7 |
| ACC | 59.3 |
| MWC | 66.4 |
| IND | 68.4 |
| SUN | 80.3 |
| USA | 94.3 |
| MID | 96.6 |
Hardest Cumulative Schedules Played per Conference:
| PAC | 69.3 |
|---|---|
| SEC | 71.2 |
| IND | 71.2 |
| B10 | 73.8 |
| ACC | 74.5 |
| B12 | 78.2 |
| USA | 78.9 |
| AAC | 79.3 |
| MWC | 80.4 |
| MID | 81.5 |
| SUN | 82.0 |
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