IowaHawkBlog's Marble Game Through Week 5

This morning, David asked if I could go through and use a new initial condition for the Marble Game.  The idea is that all teams are given 100 marbles, plus an additional 10 for each P5 opponent they scheduled for this year.  In this way teams would have initial marble counts between 100 and 210 (Stanford, WVU, Colorado) based on how difficult of a season they scheduled for themselves. Everything else then stays the same and we run the model through week 5.  I put in the time to tabulate all of these initial counts and then ran the model with this new initial count, and doing it the old way as before. Both sets of results are below.

The first table is with the new initial condition. I put the initial count for each team in the final column so you can see how everyone shapes up. If you see any issues with your teams initial count, let me know. Just count up how many P5 opponents they have on their schedule and add it up.

The second table is the results done in the way we normally do (200 for P5s, 100 for G5s, etc). 

Perhaps not too surprisingly, the same handful of undefeated teams distill to the top in both systems.  Georgia and Iowa hold the top two spots.  Michigan, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Ok St take the next 4 spots, and though it's in a slightly different order, they also take the 4 spots behind BYU in the older system.  BYU falls 7 spots with the new initialization, because they started with 30 fewer marbles than in the old system.

That's it for today, if you find any mistakes, please message me on Twitter (@NateEMiller). As always, if you have questions, feel free to inquire with me or the Commish, David Burge (@IowaHawkBlog).

Rank	Team	W	L	Conf	Marbles	Initial
1	Georgia	5	0	SEC	402	200
2	Iowa	5	0	B10	400	200
3	Michigan	5	0	B10	368	200
4	Oklahoma	5	0	B12	359	200
5	Alabama	5	0	SEC	352	190
6	Oklahoma St.	5	0	B12	350	190
7	Kentucky	5	0	SEC	342	190
8	Penn State	5	0	B10	341	200
9	Mich. St.	5	0	B10	340	200
10	BYU	5	0	IND	337	170
11	Wake Forest	5	0	ACC	319	190
12	Texas	4	1	B12	280	200
13	Ohio State	4	1	B10	271	200
14	Arkansas	4	1	SEC	266	190
15	Oregon St.	4	1	PAC	260	200
16	Stanford	3	2	PAC	258	210
17	Arizona St.	4	1	PAC	257	190
18	Notre Dame	4	1	IND	257	190
19	Cincinnati	4	0	AAC	256	110
20	Auburn	4	1	SEC	248	190
21	Oregon	4	1	PAC	247	200
22	Pittsburgh	4	1	ACC	241	190
23	Baylor	4	1	B12	234	190
24	UTSA	5	0	USA	234	100
25	NC State	4	1	ACC	226	190
26	SMU	5	0	AAC	226	110
27	Texas Tech	4	1	B12	226	190
28	BC	4	1	ACC	224	190
29	Maryland	4	1	B10	221	200
30	Minnesota	3	2	B10	215	200
31	N. Carolina	3	2	ACC	215	190
32	Miss. St.	3	2	SEC	211	190
33	Coastal Caro.	5	0	SUN	207	110
34	Clemson	3	2	ACC	206	200
35	San Diego St.	4	0	MWC	206	120
36	W. Michigan	4	1	MID	206	120
37	Virginia Tech	3	1	ACC	200	190
38	Ole Miss	3	1	SEC	199	190
39	UCLA	3	2	PAC	196	200
40	Purdue	3	2	B10	172	200
41	Wyoming	4	0	MWC	172	100
42	Duke	3	2	ACC	171	200
43	USC	3	2	PAC	171	190
44	Virginia	3	2	ACC	171	190
45	Nevada	3	1	MWC	169	120
46	Texas A&M	3	2	SEC	169	190
47	Florida	3	2	SEC	167	190
48	LSU	3	2	SEC	167	190
49	Rutgers	3	2	B10	167	200
50	Kansas St.	3	2	B12	166	200
51	Louisville	3	2	ACC	166	200
52	Tennessee	3	2	SEC	162	190
53	Army	4	1	IND	160	120
54	UL Lafayette	4	1	SUN	158	110
55	Liberty	4	1	IND	157	110
56	Syracuse	3	2	ACC	157	190
57	Fresno St.	4	2	MWC	155	120
58	Iowa State	3	2	B12	153	200
59	App. St.	4	1	SUN	146	110
60	S. Carolina	3	2	SEC	144	190
61	Nebraska	3	3	B10	143	200
62	Utah	2	2	PAC	143	190
63	Houston	4	1	AAC	141	110
64	UTEP	4	1	USA	134	100
65	Air Force	4	1	MWC	131	100
66	W. Virginia	2	3	B12	130	210
67	TCU	2	2	B12	129	200
68	Wash.	2	3	PAC	128	200
69	N. Illinois	3	2	MID	126	120
70	Georgia Tech	2	3	ACC	118	190
71	Temple	3	2	AAC	118	120
72	S. Alabama	3	1	SUN	117	110
73	Charlotte	3	2	USA	114	120
74	Illinois	2	4	B10	114	200
75	Memphis	3	2	AAC	114	110
76	Hawaii	3	3	MWC	112	120
77	Indiana	2	3	B10	110	190
78	E. Carolina	3	2	AAC	109	110
79	Wash. St.	2	3	PAC	109	190
80	Utah State	3	2	MWC	106	110
81	Northwestern	2	3	B10	105	200
82	Miami (FL)	2	3	ACC	104	200
83	Florida St.	1	4	ACC	103	190
84	Missouri	2	3	SEC	103	190
85	Bowling Grn	2	3	MID	100	120
86	Vanderbilt	2	3	SEC	100	190
87	Boise State	2	3	MWC	99	110
88	E. Mich.	3	2	MID	99	110
89	Florida Atl.	3	2	USA	98	110
90	Wisconsin	1	3	B10	98	190
91	UAB	3	2	USA	97	110
92	San Jose St.	3	2	MWC	95	110
93	UL Monroe	2	2	SUN	94	120
94	Ball State	2	3	MID	92	110
95	Kent State	2	3	MID	91	130
96	Toledo	3	2	MID	90	100
97	UCF	2	2	AAC	85	110
98	Kansas	1	4	B12	77	200
99	Colorado	1	4	PAC	76	210
100	Miami (OH)	2	3	MID	74	110
101	California	1	4	PAC	72	200
102	C. Mich.	2	3	MID	71	120
103	Mid. Tenn.	2	3	USA	71	110
104	Colorado St.	1	3	MWC	70	120
105	Rice	2	3	USA	69	120
106	Arizona	0	4	PAC	68	190
107	LA Tech	2	3	USA	68	120
108	Navy	1	3	AAC	66	100
109	Troy	2	3	SUN	66	110
110	Texas State	1	3	SUN	64	110
111	Buffalo	2	3	MID	63	110
112	Georgia So.	2	3	SUN	63	110
113	Georgia St.	1	4	SUN	62	120
114	Marshall	2	3	USA	60	100
115	New Mexico	2	3	MWC	59	110
116	Ohio	1	4	MID	58	120
117	W. Kentucky	1	3	USA	58	120
118	North Texas	1	3	USA	53	110
119	Tulsa	1	4	AAC	53	120
120	S. Florida	1	4	AAC	46	120
121	Tulane	1	4	AAC	46	120
122	Akron	1	4	MID	43	120
123	Arkansas St.	1	4	SUN	42	110
124	Old Dominion	1	4	USA	42	110
125	S. Miss.	1	4	USA	42	110
126	Florida Int.	1	4	USA	38	100
127	UMASS	0	5	MID	34	130
128	NM St.	1	5	IND	34	120
129	UNLV	0	5	MWC	34	120
130	Connecticut	0	6	AAC	27	130

Rank	Team	W	L	Conf	Marbles	Change
1	Georgia	5	0	SEC	403	+2, +67
2	Iowa	5	0	B10	393	+5, +72
3	BYU	5	0	IND	369	+1, +34
4	Alabama	5	0	SEC	363	+5, +51
5	Michigan	5	0	B10	361	0, +34
6	Oklahoma St.	5	0	B12	355	+8, +60
7	Oklahoma	5	0	B12	352	+6, +54
8	Kentucky	5	0	SEC	351	+2, +43
9	Penn State	5	0	B10	342	-1, +28
10	Mich. St.	5	0	B10	337	-4, +12
11	Wake Forest	5	0	ACC	330	+5, +41
12	Texas	4	1	B12	278	+8, +43
13	Arkansas	4	1	SEC	269	-11, -67
14	Notre Dame	4	1	IND	266	-13, -89
15	Ohio State	4	1	B10	266	+16, +55
16	Arizona St.	4	1	PAC	261	+21, +65
17	Oregon St.	4	1	PAC	259	+5, +32
18	Stanford	3	2	PAC	254	+21, +61
19	Auburn	4	1	SEC	251	+19, +57
20	Cincinnati	4	0	AAC	249	+31, +89
21	Pittsburgh	4	1	ACC	247	+13, +41
22	Oregon	4	1	PAC	244	-11, -61
23	Baylor	4	1	B12	238	-11, -60
24	Texas Tech	4	1	B12	231	+16, +43
25	NC State	4	1	ACC	228	+4, +14
26	UTSA	5	0	USA	228	0, +7
27	BC	4	1	ACC	224	-10, -56
28	N. Carolina	3	2	ACC	221	+14, +43
29	Maryland	4	1	B10	217	-14, -72
30	Miss. St.	3	2	SEC	215	+23, +57
31	Minnesota	3	2	B10	211	+23, +57
32	Clemson	3	2	ACC	208	+23, +56
33	SMU	5	0	AAC	208	+2, +10
34	Virginia Tech	3	1	ACC	208	-2, 0
35	Ole Miss	3	1	SEC	205	-16, -51
36	UCLA	3	2	PAC	194	-18, -65
37	Coastal Caro.	5	0	SUN	189	+9, +20
38	San Diego St.	4	0	MWC	187	+3, 0
39	W. Michigan	4	1	MID	187	+8, +19
40	Virginia	3	2	ACC	177	+18, +35
41	USC	3	2	PAC	176	+15, +24
42	LSU	3	2	SEC	172	-21, -57
43	Duke	3	2	ACC	171	-15, -43
44	Florida	3	2	SEC	170	-14, -43
45	Purdue	3	2	B10	169	-22, -57
46	Texas A&M	3	2	SEC	169	-22, -57
47	Tennessee	3	2	SEC	167	+21, +35
48	Louisville	3	2	ACC	166	-15, -41
49	Rutgers	3	2	B10	166	-24, -55
50	Wyoming	4	0	MWC	163	0, 0
51	Kansas St.	3	2	B12	162	-24, -54
52	Syracuse	3	2	ACC	158	-16, -39
53	Iowa State	3	2	B12	151	+13, +19
54	Nevada	3	1	MWC	151	+18, +31
55	Utah	2	2	PAC	150	+2, 0
56	S. Carolina	3	2	SEC	147	+11, +15
57	Liberty	4	1	IND	142	+20, +29
58	UL Lafayette	4	1	SUN	142	+24, +35
59	Nebraska	3	3	B10	141	+17, +26
60	Fresno St.	4	2	MWC	136	-16, -34
61	Army	4	1	IND	134	-13, -33
62	App. St.	4	1	SUN	133	+13, +18
63	TCU	2	2	B12	129	-20, -43
64	UTEP	4	1	USA	128	+9, +10
65	Air Force	4	1	MWC	127	+16, +18
66	Wash.	2	3	PAC	127	-14, -32
67	W. Virginia	2	3	B12	127	-22, -43
68	Houston	4	1	AAC	126	+11, +15
69	Georgia Tech	2	3	ACC	123	-20, -41
70	Wash. St.	2	3	PAC	114	+21, +24
71	Indiana	2	3	B10	112	-11, -28
72	N. Illinois	3	2	MID	112	+18, +22
73	Illinois	2	4	B10	111	+19, +25
74	Florida St.	1	4	ACC	106	+31, +39
75	Memphis	3	2	AAC	106	-10, -27
76	Missouri	2	3	SEC	106	-17, -35
77	S. Alabama	3	1	SUN	105	-16, -35
78	Miami (FL)	2	3	ACC	103	-16, -35
79	Northwestern	2	3	B10	103	-10, -26
80	Temple	3	2	AAC	102	+20, +27
81	Wisconsin	1	3	B10	102	-18, -34
82	E. Carolina	3	2	AAC	101	+7, +10
83	Utah State	3	2	MWC	101	-19, -34
84	Charlotte	3	2	USA	100	-14, -25
85	Vanderbilt	2	3	SEC	100	+3, +5
86	Hawaii	3	3	MWC	94	+21, +34
87	Boise State	2	3	MWC	93	-16, -31
88	Bowling Grn	2	3	MID	90	-10, -22
89	Florida Atl.	3	2	USA	90	+4, +10
90	E. Mich.	3	2	MID	88	-10, -22
91	UAB	3	2	USA	87	-17, -29
92	Toledo	3	2	MID	85	+5, +9
93	San Jose St.	3	2	MWC	84	+1, +7
94	Ball State	2	3	MID	81	+22, +33
95	UL Monroe	2	2	SUN	79	-12, -20
96	Kansas	1	4	B12	77	-10, -19
97	UCF	2	2	AAC	77	-10, -19
98	Kent State	2	3	MID	73	+13, +22
99	Arizona	0	4	PAC	72	+2, 0
100	California	1	4	PAC	72	-16, -24
101	Colorado	1	4	PAC	72	-16, -24
102	Miami (OH)	2	3	MID	66	+10, +15
103	Mid. Tenn.	2	3	USA	66	+10, +15
104	Navy	1	3	AAC	64	+21, +19
105	C. Mich.	2	3	MID	61	-9, -15
106	Colorado St.	1	3	MWC	61	0, 0
107	Troy	2	3	SUN	61	-9, -15
108	Marshall	2	3	USA	60	-9, -15
109	Texas State	1	3	SUN	60	-1, 0
110	Georgia So.	2	3	SUN	58	+8, +10
111	LA Tech	2	3	USA	58	-9, -14
112	Rice	2	3	USA	58	+9, +10
113	Buffalo	2	3	MID	57	-18, -19
114	New Mexico	2	3	MWC	54	-11, -18
115	Georgia St.	1	4	SUN	52	-11, -18
116	North Texas	1	3	USA	48	+3, 0
117	Ohio	1	4	MID	48	+11, +12
118	W. Kentucky	1	3	USA	48	-8, -12
119	Tulsa	1	4	AAC	45	-10, -15
120	Arkansas St.	1	4	SUN	38	-5, -10
121	Florida Int.	1	4	USA	38	-4, -10
122	Old Dominion	1	4	USA	38	-2, -10
123	S. Florida	1	4	AAC	38	-1, -10
124	S. Miss.	1	4	USA	38	-1, -10
125	Tulane	1	4	AAC	38	-1, -10
126	Akron	1	4	MID	36	-12, -12
127	NM St.	1	5	IND	29	0, -7
128	UNLV	0	5	MWC	29	+1, -7
129	UMASS	0	5	MID	27	-3, -9
130	Connecticut	0	6	AAC	22	0, -5

Average rank of all opponents played per team:

Wisconsin	29.5
Kansas St.	43.2
UCLA	44.4
W. Virginia	45.0
Stanford	47.0
Illinois	47.2
S. Florida	47.2
Arizona	48.5
Miami (FL)	49.4
Clemson	50.6
:	:
:	:
UTSA	102.0
App. St.	102.8
San Diego St.	103.0
Air Force	104.2
E. Mich.	104.4
Wyoming	106.8
SMU	108.8
Army	111.8
Coastal Caro.	112.8
UTEP	116.2

Average rank of all teams per conference:

SEC	36.1
B10	39.9
B12	40.2
ACC	41.6
IND	52.4
PAC	53.4
MWC	80.3
AAC	88.0
SUN	89.0
MID	97.3
USA	99.2

Average rank of all opponents played per conference:

PAC	63.7
B10	64.4
B12	65.9
SEC	68.9
ACC	71.0
MID	77.1
AAC	81.3
MWC	84.2
USA	86.7
IND	87.5
SUN	89.3