There's definitely some interesting matchups in this the last full week of the regular season. Lots of rivalry games and some that will definitely affect conference championship matchups.
- The Iron Bowl (Alabama v Auburn) is huge and also happens to have the tightest projection of the week: Auburn by 0.1 points.
- ND v Stanford could affect ND's playoff chances and Stanford's PAC12 chances.
- The Apple Bowl (UW v Wash St.) may determine the PAC12 championship matchup.
- The Big10 is still a mess. The Ohio State v Michigan game should be interesting. I suspect Ohio State covers the projected spread of ~1 point.
- Utah has their last chance to become bowl-eligible at home against Colorado. The two are essentially tied in every measurable way. That *should* mean Utah would win at home, but with as chaotic as they've been, who can say?
- Last week I was 32-28 against the spread. Decent, but needs to be better. I think if I was ever to actually make bets based on this, I'd wouldn't wager on all games but only on select ones where the projections agreed with my intuition really well.
| Away | Home | Spread Proj. | Range |
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| Miami (FL) | Pittsburgh | 21.1 | 9.8 |
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| Alabama | Auburn | -0.1 | 1.8 |
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| Notre Dame | Stanford | 1.1 | 1.0 |
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| Georgia | Georgia Tech | 5.7 | 8.0 |
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| Wisconsin | Minnesota | 19.4 | 1.1 |
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| S. Florida | UCF | -10.4 | 0.3 |
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| Ohio State | Michigan | 0.4 | 1.0 |
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| Colorado | Utah | -5.8 | 1.4 |
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| Away | Home | Spread Proj. | Range |
|---|
| Miami (OH) | Ball State | 0.5 | 1.1 |
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| Bowling Grn | E. Michigan | -7.7 | 3.4 |
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| Kent State | Akron | -24.8 | 7.9 |
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| Ole Miss | Miss. St. | -24.9 | 5.7 |
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| W. Michigan | Toledo | -19.7 | 1.2 |
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| Navy | Houston | -1.4 | 1.4 |
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| Baylor | TCU | -35.7 | 1.8 |
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| N. Illinois | C. Michigan | 4.4 | 2.4 |
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| Ohio | Buffalo | 6.7 | 6.6 |
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| Missouri | Arkansas | 12.2 | 8.2 |
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| New Mexico | San Diego St. | -26.4 | 2.1 |
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| TexasState | Troy | -26.1 | 3.9 |
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| Iowa | Nebraska | 9.0 | 7.8 |
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| W. Kentucky | FIU | -14.3 | 3.4 |
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| Virginia Tech | Virginia | 11.3 | 2.2 |
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| Texas Tech | Texas | -9.3 | 1.6 |
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| California | UCLA | -9.1 | 4.7 |
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| Indiana | Purdue | -5.3 | 1.2 |
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| Ohio State | Michigan | 0.4 | 1.0 |
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| E. Carolina | Memphis | -31.3 | 2.7 |
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| Connecticut | Cincinnati | -0.9 | 1.9 |
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| Florida St. | Florida | -4.8 | 2.1 |
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| Louisville | Kentucky | -2.4 | 0.8 |
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| Tulane | SMU | -17.3 | 2.5 |
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| Kansas | Oklahoma St. | -33.7 | 3.5 |
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| BC | Syracuse | 13.4 | 3.9 |
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| Duke | Wake Forest | -20.2 | 1.2 |
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| North Texas | Rice | 23.7 | 2.4 |
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| Texas-El Paso | UAB | -18.4 | 2.0 |
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| FAU | Charlotte | 28.8 | 1.2 |
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| App. St. | Georgia State | -8.8 | 0.5 |
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| Southern Miss. | Marshall | -10.9 | 1.4 |
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| Old Dominion | M. Tenn. St. | 1.4 | 3.2 |
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| UNLV | Nevada | 3.2 | 1.6 |
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| Arkansas St. | La.-Monroe | 6.0 | 2.7 |
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| UNC | NC State | -28.4 | 2.7 |
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| Boise State | Fresno State | 3.6 | 0.6 |
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| Penn State | Maryland | 20.3 | 3.0 |
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| Iowa State | Kansas State | 5.7 | 0.9 |
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| West Virginia | Oklahoma | -16.1 | 0.7 |
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| Idaho | New Mexico St. | -6.6 | 0.7 |
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| Vanderbilt | Tennessee | -5.8 | 0.7 |
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| Northwestern | Illinois | 20.4 | 6.3 |
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| Michigan St. | Rutgers | 18.8 | 1.9 |
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| Temple | Tulsa | 5.5 | 2.3 |
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| Arizona | Arizona State | -0.2 | 0.9 |
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| Ga. Southern | UL Lafayette | -15.8 | 3.4 |
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| Wyoming | San Jose St. | 24.9 | 11.1 |
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| Oregon State | Oregon | -29.9 | 8.6 |
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| Clemson | South Carolina | 3.3 | 0.3 |
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| Texas A&M | LSU | -8.5 | 0.5 |
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| UTSA | Louisiana Tech | 3.2 | 2.4 |
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| Washington St. | Washington | -8.8 | 3.1 |
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| BYU | Hawaii | -2.1 | 0.0 |
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| Utah State | Air Force | 9.0 | 5.1 |
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Largest Spread of the Week
Tightest Spread of the Week
Highest Regression Uncertainty of the Week
| Wyoming | San Jose St. | 24.9 | 11.1 |
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Least Regression Uncertainty of the Week
| Brigham Young | Hawaii | -2.1 | 0.0 |
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