I think I count that I was 27/54 with one push on last week's predictions. So again not great. 50% is no better than just flipping a coin. On the games I prepicked that I might have been willing to bet on, my percentage was even lower (17/37 = 45%), but on the ones I highlighted last week that I was actually confident in I did okay at 7/13 = 54%. I really need to sit down and put some time into figuring out where the weaknesses are in this. It is notoriously difficult to pick these games, thanks in large part to the shear number of upsets every week, but I feel like I should be able to consistently get ~55-60%.
Anyway, for this next week here are the numbers:
- My math has LSU winning at home, but has also been very unkind to Alabama all season, so I don't know that I really trust that one.
- Mine also has UK beating UGA, and though I think that one may be competitive, I gotta think UGA will pull that one off.
- Vegas and I agree really closely on WVU/Texas, Penn St/Michigan, and ND/NW. Strange.
- I have Utah covering the spread at ASU. #GoUtes
I usually put my threshold of what I'd be willing to bet on as games where my prediction is significantly different than the Vegas one & where it seems logical. There are many of those this week obviously, but I highlighted 12 that I'm relatively confident in and would be willing to bet on if such things existed in my state.
| Away | Home | Vegas | Spread Proj. | Range |
|---|
| Alabama | LSU | 14.5 | -6.6 | 1.5 |
|---|
| West Virginia | Texas | -2.0 | -3.1 | 4.4 |
|---|
| Georgia | Kentucky | 9.0 | -3.9 | 0.6 |
|---|
| Penn State | Michigan | -10.5 | -10.6 | 1.2 |
|---|
| Stanford | Washington | -10.0 | -5.0 | 0.3 |
|---|
| Notre Dame | Northwestern | 9.5 | 9.8 | 4.9 |
|---|
| Utah | Arizona State | 7.0 | 15.9 | 3.1 |
|---|
| Away | Home | Vegas | Spread Proj. | Range |
|---|
| N. Illinois | Akron | 6.0 | 5.4 | 1.0 |
|---|
| Ohio | W. Michigan | 2.5 | -6.6 | 2.0 |
|---|
| Temple | UCF | -11.0 | -15.8 | 4.4 |
|---|
| Pittsburgh | Virginia | -7.5 | -12.6 | 3.0 |
|---|
| W. Kentucky | Middle Tenn. | -13.5 | -27.7 | 0.4 |
|---|
| Colorado | Arizona | -3.0 | -4.0 | 1.1 |
|---|
| Oklahoma St | Baylor | 7.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
|---|
| Texas A&M | Auburn | -4.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
|---|
| Iowa State | Kansas | 14.5 | 19.8 | 8.1 |
|---|
| S. Carolina | Ole Miss | 0.0 | 6.6 | 6.3 |
|---|
| Air Force | Army | -7.0 | -25.3 | 10.0 |
|---|
| Syracuse | Wake Forest | 6.0 | 13.4 | 4.1 |
|---|
| Rutgers | Wisconsin | -28.0 | -32.3 | 6.0 |
|---|
| Louisville | Clemson | -38.5 | -42.0 | 5.4 |
|---|
| Memphis | East Carolina | 13.0 | -8.6 | 4.5 |
|---|
| C. Michigan | E.Michigan | -13.5 | -11.3 | 7.7 |
|---|
| Nebraska | Ohio State | -17.5 | -35.3 | 3.6 |
|---|
| Michigan St | Maryland | 2.5 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
|---|
| Georgia Tech | N. Carolina | 6.0 | 11.4 | 1.3 |
|---|
| San Jose State | Wyoming | -13.5 | -4.7 | 4.2 |
|---|
| Texas State | Georgia State | -5.5 | -11.5 | 2.0 |
|---|
| Marshall | Southern Miss | 3.0 | 9.2 | 0.4 |
|---|
| Ga. Southern | UL-Monroe | 7.5 | 11.9 | 12.0 |
|---|
| S. Alabama | Arkansas St | -16.0 | -15.4 | 3.2 |
|---|
| Minnesota | Illinois | 9.5 | -0.1 | 1.2 |
|---|
| Tulane | South Florida | -7.0 | -20.3 | 8.0 |
|---|
| Louisiana | Troy | -10.5 | -18.3 | 4.3 |
|---|
| Kansas State | TCU | -8.0 | -4.2 | 1.6 |
|---|
| UTEP | Rice | -1.0 | -5.2 | 1.4 |
|---|
| Navy | Cincinnati | -13.0 | -33.3 | 2.4 |
|---|
| Liberty | Massachusetts | -2.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
|---|
| Florida State | NC State | -9.0 | -17.4 | 3.3 |
|---|
| Iowa | Purdue | -2.5 | 6.0 | 1.0 |
|---|
| Boston College | Virginia Tech | 2.0 | 9.7 | 3.1 |
|---|
| Charlotte | Tennessee | -21.0 | -8.8 | 1.3 |
|---|
| Missouri | Florida | -6.0 | -20.6 | 1.8 |
|---|
| App. St | CCU | 14.5 | 4.8 | 2.8 |
|---|
| Connecticut | Tulsa | -17.5 | -2.6 | 0.2 |
|---|
| Houston | SMU | 14.0 | 16.8 | 3.0 |
|---|
| Duke | Miami(FL) | -9.5 | -0.1 | 3.5 |
|---|
| UCLA | Oregon | -10.0 | -14.3 | 0.5 |
|---|
| UTSA | UAB | -22.0 | -40.2 | 8.2 |
|---|
| Louisiana Tech | Miss.State | -23.5 | -8.5 | 0.4 |
|---|
| FAU | FIU | -3.0 | -16.3 | 1.8 |
|---|
| Oklahoma | Texas Tech | 13.5 | 6.8 | 3.8 |
|---|
| USC | Oregon State | 16.5 | 10.5 | 0.5 |
|---|
| San Diego St. | New Mexico | 10.5 | 13.4 | 3.8 |
|---|
| BYU | Boise State | -13.0 | -19.4 | 3.4 |
|---|
| Fresno State | UNLV | 25.0 | 32.0 | 2.3 |
|---|
| California | Washington St | -10.0 | -23.4 | 4.9 |
|---|
| Utah State | Hawaii | 18.0 | 14.7 | 0.2 |
|---|
Largest Spread of the Week
| Louisville | Clemson | -38.5 | -42.0 | 5.4 |
|---|
Tightest Spread of the Week
| Minnesota | Illinois | 9.5 | -0.1 | 1.2 |
|---|
Highest Regression Uncertainty of the Week
| Ga. Southern | UL-Monroe | 7.5 | 11.9 | 12.0 |
|---|
Least Regression Uncertainty of the Week
| Utah State | Hawaii | 18.0 | 14.7 | 0.2 |
|---|
Comments
Post a Comment