2018 - NEMindex Projections for Week 9

Last week wasn't great for my predictions. I think there were only 53 FBS games that I had predictions in on time for and I picked correctly against the spread on 25 of them.  Obviously I would not have bet on all 53 of those games anyway. Just glancing over which ones I think I'd of been willing to bet on in hindsight I think I'd of gotten 20/35 (57%). That's not bad but definitely needs to be better.

Here are this week's predictions.
- Looks like I have the exact same prediction as Vegas for the Clemson game
- I have USF beating Houston while Vegas has them losing
- UGA will get back on track against Florida
- The PAC12 North will continue to be difficult to parse
- But Utah should stay atop the PAC12 South

The highlighted spreads are ones I think I'd be willing to bet on. There's probably others but those are just the ones I see on a first pass.

As a reminder on what this all means and how to read it, the instructions are HERE.
If you have comments or questions please let me know @NateEMiller.

AwayHomeVegasSpread Proj.Range
Miami (FL) BC 3.5 3.1 3.2
Clemson Florida St 16.5 16.5 0.9
South Florida Houston -7.0 1.0 1.8
Florida Georgia -6.5 -4.1 0.1
Iowa Penn St -6.5 8.3 4.4
Washington St Stanford -3.0 -7.2 0.4


AwayHomeVegasSpread Proj.Range
Ball St Ohio -10.5 -15.7 5.1
Toledo W. Michigan -6.5 -20.8 8.7
Baylor West Virginia -14.0 -20.4 2.7
Georgia Tech Virginia Tech -3.0 -13.5 0.6
App. St. Ga. Southern 10.0 0.5 0.7
Louisiana Tech FAU -3.5 11.8 2.9
Indiana Minnesota 2.5 -0.8 5.3
Wyoming Colorado St -2.0 -1.8 2.6
Utah UCLA 10.5 22.4 1.5
Vanderbilt Arkansas 1.5 3.1 3.9
Texas Tech Iowa St -3.5 -2.0 0.6
Wisconsin Northwestern 7.0 11.1 2.4
C. Michigan Akron -4.5 -7.9 5.8
Purdue Michigan St -1.5 5.9 1.7
Massachusetts Connecticut 5.0 -3.6 2.0
Wake Forest Louisville -2.5 7.4 3.7
Army E. Michigan -1.0 22.0 5.7
North Carolina Virginia -9.0 -29.8 13.1
CCU GA St 3.5 4.4 5.1
Southern Miss Charlotte 7.5 6.1 5.4
Oregon St Colorado -24.5 -26.0 0.3
TCU Kansas 13.5 11.7 2.4
Kansas St Oklahoma -24.5 -27.8 1.8
Arizona St USC -6.5 -14.7 1.7
N. Illinois BYU -7.0 -7.3 1.6
Cincinnati SMU 9.5 19.9 10.2
Duke Pittsburgh 2.5 17.4 1.4
Illinois Maryland -18.0 -13.0 3.1
Middle Tenn. Old Dominion 4.0 9.3 3.8
New Mexico Utah St -20.5 -28.2 7.8
Rice North Texas -29.5 -32.4 1.3
Kentucky Missouri -7.0 12.5 1.3
UNLV San Jose St -2.5 2.0 3.4
Washington California 11.5 28.7 5.6
Boise St Air Force 9.5 11.2 1.4
Tulane Tulsa -2.0 -1.6 4.9
Texas A&M Miss. St -2.0 2.1 1.5
New Mexico St Texas St -3.0 -4.2 2.8
NC St Syracuse 2.5 4.4 4.3
Arkansas St Louisiana 3.0 3.3 1.4
FIU W. Kentucky 3.5 16.6 0.1
UAB UTEP 16.0 27.1 13.0
Tennessee South Carolina -7.5 -12.2 4.1
Notre Dame Navy 23.5 30.0 8.8
Texas Oklahoma St 3.5 10.6 4.0
San Diego St Nevada 2.5 10.7 6.6
Oregon Arizona 9.5 12.1 0.5
Hawaii Fresno St -24.5 -21.8 0.5
Troy South Alabama 11.0 12.0 3.4


Largest Spread of the Week
  Rice North Texas -29.5 -32.4 1.3


Tightest Spread of the Week
App. St. Ga. Southern 10.0   0.5   0.7


Highest Regression Uncertainty of the Week
North Carolina Virginia   -9.0  -29.8 13.1


Least Regression Uncertainty of the Week
Florida Georgia  -6.5 -4.1 0.1


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