Last week wasn't great for my predictions. I think there were only 53 FBS games that I had predictions in on time for and I picked correctly against the spread on 25 of them. Obviously I would not have bet on all 53 of those games anyway. Just glancing over which ones I think I'd of been willing to bet on in hindsight I think I'd of gotten 20/35 (57%). That's not bad but definitely needs to be better.
Here are this week's predictions.
- Looks like I have the exact same prediction as Vegas for the Clemson game
- I have USF beating Houston while Vegas has them losing
- UGA will get back on track against Florida
- The PAC12 North will continue to be difficult to parse
- But Utah should stay atop the PAC12 South
The highlighted spreads are ones I think I'd be willing to bet on. There's probably others but those are just the ones I see on a first pass.
As a reminder on what this all means and how to read it, the instructions are HERE.
If you have comments or questions please let me know @NateEMiller.
Largest Spread of the Week
Tightest Spread of the Week
Highest Regression Uncertainty of the Week
Least Regression Uncertainty of the Week
Here are this week's predictions.
- Looks like I have the exact same prediction as Vegas for the Clemson game
- I have USF beating Houston while Vegas has them losing
- UGA will get back on track against Florida
- The PAC12 North will continue to be difficult to parse
- But Utah should stay atop the PAC12 South
The highlighted spreads are ones I think I'd be willing to bet on. There's probably others but those are just the ones I see on a first pass.
As a reminder on what this all means and how to read it, the instructions are HERE.
If you have comments or questions please let me know @NateEMiller.
| Away | Home | Vegas | Spread Proj. | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (FL) | BC | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
| Clemson | Florida St | 16.5 | 16.5 | 0.9 |
| South Florida | Houston | -7.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Florida | Georgia | -6.5 | -4.1 | 0.1 |
| Iowa | Penn St | -6.5 | 8.3 | 4.4 |
| Washington St | Stanford | -3.0 | -7.2 | 0.4 |
| Away | Home | Vegas | Spread Proj. | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ball St | Ohio | -10.5 | -15.7 | 5.1 |
| Toledo | W. Michigan | -6.5 | -20.8 | 8.7 |
| Baylor | West Virginia | -14.0 | -20.4 | 2.7 |
| Georgia Tech | Virginia Tech | -3.0 | -13.5 | 0.6 |
| App. St. | Ga. Southern | 10.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Louisiana Tech | FAU | -3.5 | 11.8 | 2.9 |
| Indiana | Minnesota | 2.5 | -0.8 | 5.3 |
| Wyoming | Colorado St | -2.0 | -1.8 | 2.6 |
| Utah | UCLA | 10.5 | 22.4 | 1.5 |
| Vanderbilt | Arkansas | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.9 |
| Texas Tech | Iowa St | -3.5 | -2.0 | 0.6 |
| Wisconsin | Northwestern | 7.0 | 11.1 | 2.4 |
| C. Michigan | Akron | -4.5 | -7.9 | 5.8 |
| Purdue | Michigan St | -1.5 | 5.9 | 1.7 |
| Massachusetts | Connecticut | 5.0 | -3.6 | 2.0 |
| Wake Forest | Louisville | -2.5 | 7.4 | 3.7 |
| Army | E. Michigan | -1.0 | 22.0 | 5.7 |
| North Carolina | Virginia | -9.0 | -29.8 | 13.1 |
| CCU | GA St | 3.5 | 4.4 | 5.1 |
| Southern Miss | Charlotte | 7.5 | 6.1 | 5.4 |
| Oregon St | Colorado | -24.5 | -26.0 | 0.3 |
| TCU | Kansas | 13.5 | 11.7 | 2.4 |
| Kansas St | Oklahoma | -24.5 | -27.8 | 1.8 |
| Arizona St | USC | -6.5 | -14.7 | 1.7 |
| N. Illinois | BYU | -7.0 | -7.3 | 1.6 |
| Cincinnati | SMU | 9.5 | 19.9 | 10.2 |
| Duke | Pittsburgh | 2.5 | 17.4 | 1.4 |
| Illinois | Maryland | -18.0 | -13.0 | 3.1 |
| Middle Tenn. | Old Dominion | 4.0 | 9.3 | 3.8 |
| New Mexico | Utah St | -20.5 | -28.2 | 7.8 |
| Rice | North Texas | -29.5 | -32.4 | 1.3 |
| Kentucky | Missouri | -7.0 | 12.5 | 1.3 |
| UNLV | San Jose St | -2.5 | 2.0 | 3.4 |
| Washington | California | 11.5 | 28.7 | 5.6 |
| Boise St | Air Force | 9.5 | 11.2 | 1.4 |
| Tulane | Tulsa | -2.0 | -1.6 | 4.9 |
| Texas A&M | Miss. St | -2.0 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| New Mexico St | Texas St | -3.0 | -4.2 | 2.8 |
| NC St | Syracuse | 2.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 |
| Arkansas St | Louisiana | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| FIU | W. Kentucky | 3.5 | 16.6 | 0.1 |
| UAB | UTEP | 16.0 | 27.1 | 13.0 |
| Tennessee | South Carolina | -7.5 | -12.2 | 4.1 |
| Notre Dame | Navy | 23.5 | 30.0 | 8.8 |
| Texas | Oklahoma St | 3.5 | 10.6 | 4.0 |
| San Diego St | Nevada | 2.5 | 10.7 | 6.6 |
| Oregon | Arizona | 9.5 | 12.1 | 0.5 |
| Hawaii | Fresno St | -24.5 | -21.8 | 0.5 |
| Troy | South Alabama | 11.0 | 12.0 | 3.4 |
Largest Spread of the Week
| Rice | North Texas | -29.5 | -32.4 | 1.3 |
|---|
Tightest Spread of the Week
| App. St. | Ga. Southern | 10.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
|---|
Highest Regression Uncertainty of the Week
| North Carolina | Virginia | -9.0 | -29.8 | 13.1 |
|---|
Least Regression Uncertainty of the Week
| Florida | Georgia | -6.5 | -4.1 | 0.1 |
|---|
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