(Here's my disclaimer for all the new people that are here for the first time: This system, which I've been working on
for ~8 years, is entirely data-driven and uses a set of metrics I've
identified to measure the actual performance of all of the teams
simultaneously and rank them all against each other using a
multi-regression technique. If a team comes up higher than seems
logical, it's not because I think they're that good, it's because
something in their performance is saying they are probably better than
what we are realizing yet. It may also be anomalous and they won't keep
it up and will plummet in the following week.)
Some vindication on what I've been saying for 2 weeks about Ohio State both here and on Twitter. They aren't as good as the pollsters had been claiming. Their loss drops them to 21st (which is probably a little low in my opinion). Clemson and ND continue to hold the top spots and LSU managed to jump over Alabama. Those two play each other in 2 weeks. Gotta expect that the winner of that will move to 1st. Until then though, both are on bye weeks while Clemson and ND play manageable opponents in FSU and Navy, respectively.
Utah beat USC at home and climbed to 15th here. I have them as the best PAC12 team at the moment and am hopeful they'll be able to run the table. They're on the road at UCLA this next week. I honestly thing Washington and WSU may be better than Utah, but the way the North division is eating itself just isn't helping any of them with the math. Who knows who's gonna win that division and then hopefully play Utah for the championship and the Rose Bowl?
I am running my spread predictions for each week now and am going to try and put them out on either Tuesday or Wednesday each week. I put some out this last week, but they were really bad so don't go look. It was embarrassing. But look for the next ones to come up in a couple days.
As always thanks for being here and please let me know if you have feedback or see issues (@NateEMiller).
Hardest Schedule Played per Team:
Average Rank per Conference:
Hardest Cumulative Schedules Played per Conference:
Some vindication on what I've been saying for 2 weeks about Ohio State both here and on Twitter. They aren't as good as the pollsters had been claiming. Their loss drops them to 21st (which is probably a little low in my opinion). Clemson and ND continue to hold the top spots and LSU managed to jump over Alabama. Those two play each other in 2 weeks. Gotta expect that the winner of that will move to 1st. Until then though, both are on bye weeks while Clemson and ND play manageable opponents in FSU and Navy, respectively.
Utah beat USC at home and climbed to 15th here. I have them as the best PAC12 team at the moment and am hopeful they'll be able to run the table. They're on the road at UCLA this next week. I honestly thing Washington and WSU may be better than Utah, but the way the North division is eating itself just isn't helping any of them with the math. Who knows who's gonna win that division and then hopefully play Utah for the championship and the Rose Bowl?
I am running my spread predictions for each week now and am going to try and put them out on either Tuesday or Wednesday each week. I put some out this last week, but they were really bad so don't go look. It was embarrassing. But look for the next ones to come up in a couple days.
As always thanks for being here and please let me know if you have feedback or see issues (@NateEMiller).
| Rank | Team | W | L | Conf | RTPS | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clemson | 7 | 0 | ACC | 1.000 | 0 |
| 2 | Notre Dame | 7 | 0 | IND | 0.949 | 0 |
| 3 | LSU | 7 | 1 | SEC | 0.943 | +1 |
| 4 | Alabama | 8 | 0 | SEC | 0.940 | -1 |
| 5 | Michigan | 7 | 1 | B10 | 0.868 | +3 |
| 6 | Georgia | 6 | 1 | SEC | 0.846 | +6 |
| 7 | Florida | 6 | 1 | SEC | 0.835 | -1 |
| 8 | Oklahoma | 6 | 1 | B12 | 0.810 | +1 |
| 9 | Kentucky | 6 | 1 | SEC | 0.801 | -2 |
| 10 | NC State | 5 | 1 | ACC | 0.800 | -5 |
| 11 | Texas | 6 | 1 | B12 | 0.784 | 0 |
| 12 | Iowa | 6 | 1 | B10 | 0.763 | +1 |
| 13 | UCF | 7 | 0 | AAC | 0.747 | +3 |
| 14 | W. Virginia | 5 | 1 | B12 | 0.731 | +4 |
| 15 | Utah | 5 | 2 | PAC | 0.722 | +6 |
| 16 | Wash. | 6 | 2 | PAC | 0.721 | +7 |
| 17 | Army | 5 | 2 | IND | 0.715 | 0 |
| 18 | Texas A&M | 5 | 2 | SEC | 0.713 | +7 |
| 19 | Stanford | 5 | 2 | PAC | 0.711 | -5 |
| 20 | UAB | 6 | 1 | USA | 0.698 | +11 |
| 21 | Ohio State | 7 | 1 | B10 | 0.691 | -11 |
| 22 | App. St. | 5 | 1 | SUN | 0.684 | +6 |
| 23 | Virginia | 5 | 2 | ACC | 0.680 | +25 |
| 24 | Duke | 5 | 2 | ACC | 0.676 | -9 |
| 25 | Texas Tech | 5 | 2 | B12 | 0.676 | -5 |
| 26 | Fresno St. | 6 | 1 | MWC | 0.671 | +7 |
| 27 | Wash. St. | 6 | 1 | PAC | 0.670 | +13 |
| 28 | San Diego St. | 6 | 1 | MWC | 0.667 | -4 |
| 29 | S. Florida | 7 | 0 | AAC | 0.665 | -7 |
| 30 | Wisconsin | 5 | 2 | B10 | 0.663 | +4 |
| 31 | Purdue | 4 | 3 | B10 | 0.660 | +37 |
| 32 | Miami (FL) | 5 | 2 | ACC | 0.658 | +3 |
| 33 | Iowa State | 3 | 3 | B12 | 0.657 | -3 |
| 34 | Utah State | 6 | 1 | MWC | 0.656 | -5 |
| 35 | Buffalo | 7 | 1 | MID | 0.654 | +7 |
| 36 | Penn State | 5 | 2 | B10 | 0.629 | +3 |
| 37 | Miss. St. | 4 | 3 | SEC | 0.627 | -11 |
| 38 | Georgia So. | 6 | 1 | SUN | 0.626 | +7 |
| 39 | North Texas | 6 | 2 | USA | 0.625 | -2 |
| 40 | Boise State | 5 | 2 | MWC | 0.622 | +9 |
| 41 | Cincinnati | 6 | 1 | AAC | 0.620 | -22 |
| 42 | S. Carolina | 3 | 3 | SEC | 0.620 | +8 |
| 43 | Syracuse | 5 | 2 | ACC | 0.611 | 0 |
| 44 | LA Tech | 5 | 2 | USA | 0.603 | -3 |
| 45 | BC | 5 | 2 | ACC | 0.602 | +8 |
| 46 | Auburn | 5 | 3 | SEC | 0.598 | +20 |
| 47 | Houston | 6 | 1 | AAC | 0.597 | 0 |
| 48 | Troy | 5 | 2 | SUN | 0.594 | +6 |
| 49 | Oregon | 5 | 2 | PAC | 0.594 | -13 |
| 50 | USC | 4 | 3 | PAC | 0.593 | -23 |
| 51 | Ole Miss | 5 | 3 | SEC | 0.592 | -13 |
| 52 | Virginia Tech | 4 | 2 | ACC | 0.588 | 0 |
| 53 | Missouri | 4 | 3 | SEC | 0.585 | +12 |
| 54 | Mich. St. | 4 | 3 | B10 | 0.585 | -22 |
| 55 | BYU | 4 | 3 | IND | 0.580 | -4 |
| 56 | W. Michigan | 6 | 2 | MID | 0.566 | 0 |
| 57 | Colorado | 5 | 2 | PAC | 0.553 | -11 |
| 58 | Temple | 5 | 3 | AAC | 0.552 | +3 |
| 59 | Marshall | 5 | 2 | USA | 0.551 | +12 |
| 60 | Maryland | 4 | 3 | B10 | 0.545 | -16 |
| 61 | Florida St. | 4 | 3 | ACC | 0.545 | +13 |
| 62 | Mid. Tenn. | 4 | 3 | USA | 0.532 | +11 |
| 63 | Northwestern | 4 | 3 | B10 | 0.529 | +1 |
| 64 | Florida Int. | 5 | 2 | USA | 0.526 | +3 |
| 65 | Tennessee | 3 | 4 | SEC | 0.526 | -7 |
| 66 | Baylor | 4 | 3 | B12 | 0.525 | -9 |
| 67 | Coastal Caro. | 4 | 3 | SUN | 0.515 | +5 |
| 68 | Oklahoma St. | 4 | 3 | B12 | 0.514 | +1 |
| 69 | Arkansas St. | 4 | 3 | SUN | 0.509 | +7 |
| 70 | N. Illinois | 4 | 3 | MID | 0.504 | +5 |
| 71 | TCU | 3 | 4 | B12 | 0.499 | -11 |
| 72 | Indiana | 4 | 4 | B10 | 0.498 | -17 |
| 73 | E. Mich. | 4 | 4 | MID | 0.484 | +10 |
| 74 | Vanderbilt | 3 | 5 | SEC | 0.482 | +4 |
| 75 | Liberty | 4 | 3 | IND | 0.475 | +5 |
| 76 | Kansas St. | 3 | 4 | B12 | 0.470 | +1 |
| 77 | Ohio | 4 | 3 | MID | 0.462 | +8 |
| 78 | Arizona St. | 3 | 4 | PAC | 0.459 | -16 |
| 79 | Hawaii | 6 | 3 | MWC | 0.458 | -16 |
| 80 | Georgia Tech | 3 | 4 | ACC | 0.443 | +1 |
| 81 | Pittsburgh | 3 | 4 | ACC | 0.442 | +6 |
| 82 | Florida Atl. | 3 | 4 | USA | 0.439 | -3 |
| 83 | Wake Forest | 3 | 4 | ACC | 0.438 | -13 |
| 84 | Nevada | 4 | 4 | MWC | 0.433 | +19 |
| 85 | Toledo | 3 | 4 | MID | 0.426 | +3 |
| 86 | UCLA | 2 | 5 | PAC | 0.422 | +7 |
| 87 | S. Miss. | 3 | 3 | USA | 0.418 | +15 |
| 88 | SMU | 3 | 4 | AAC | 0.414 | +8 |
| 89 | UL Lafayette | 3 | 4 | SUN | 0.410 | -3 |
| 90 | Air Force | 3 | 4 | MWC | 0.406 | +11 |
| 91 | UL Monroe | 4 | 4 | SUN | 0.400 | +4 |
| 92 | Akron | 3 | 3 | MID | 0.396 | +6 |
| 93 | Memphis | 4 | 4 | AAC | 0.392 | -11 |
| 94 | Illinois | 3 | 4 | B10 | 0.386 | 0 |
| 95 | Miami (OH) | 3 | 5 | MID | 0.384 | -4 |
| 96 | New Mexico | 3 | 4 | MWC | 0.381 | -4 |
| 97 | California | 4 | 3 | PAC | 0.380 | +3 |
| 98 | Minnesota | 3 | 4 | B10 | 0.376 | -39 |
| 99 | Arizona | 3 | 5 | PAC | 0.374 | -9 |
| 100 | Colorado St. | 3 | 5 | MWC | 0.362 | -11 |
| 101 | Tulane | 2 | 5 | AAC | 0.355 | -17 |
| 102 | E. Carolina | 2 | 5 | AAC | 0.352 | +3 |
| 103 | Charlotte | 3 | 4 | USA | 0.341 | -4 |
| 104 | Wyoming | 2 | 6 | MWC | 0.336 | +2 |
| 105 | Georgia St. | 2 | 5 | SUN | 0.334 | -8 |
| 106 | UMASS | 2 | 6 | MID | 0.326 | -2 |
| 107 | Arkansas | 2 | 6 | SEC | 0.320 | +8 |
| 108 | Nebraska | 1 | 6 | B10 | 0.318 | +13 |
| 109 | S. Alabama | 2 | 5 | SUN | 0.309 | -1 |
| 110 | Louisville | 2 | 5 | ACC | 0.301 | +3 |
| 111 | Kansas | 2 | 5 | B12 | 0.299 | -4 |
| 112 | Old Dominion | 2 | 6 | USA | 0.290 | +6 |
| 113 | UTSA | 3 | 5 | USA | 0.279 | -4 |
| 114 | Navy | 2 | 5 | AAC | 0.277 | +2 |
| 115 | Connecticut | 1 | 6 | AAC | 0.272 | -1 |
| 116 | N. Carolina | 1 | 5 | ACC | 0.259 | +1 |
| 117 | Ball State | 3 | 5 | MID | 0.244 | -5 |
| 118 | UNLV | 2 | 5 | MWC | 0.243 | -7 |
| 119 | Tulsa | 1 | 6 | AAC | 0.230 | -9 |
| 120 | NM St. | 2 | 6 | IND | 0.211 | -1 |
| 121 | C. Mich. | 1 | 7 | MID | 0.203 | +2 |
| 122 | San Jose St. | 0 | 7 | MWC | 0.201 | +2 |
| 123 | Oregon St. | 1 | 6 | PAC | 0.169 | -3 |
| 124 | Rice | 1 | 7 | USA | 0.158 | +2 |
| 125 | W. Kentucky | 1 | 6 | USA | 0.154 | -3 |
| 126 | Rutgers | 1 | 7 | B10 | 0.141 | -1 |
| 127 | Kent State | 1 | 7 | MID | 0.132 | +1 |
| 128 | Bowling Grn | 1 | 7 | MID | 0.127 | -1 |
| 129 | Texas State | 1 | 6 | SUN | 0.124 | 0 |
| 130 | UTEP | 0 | 7 | USA | 0.000 | 0 |
Hardest Schedule Played per Team:
| S. Carolina | 37.8 |
|---|---|
| Vanderbilt | 42.9 |
| Iowa State | 44.2 |
| LSU | 44.3 |
| TCU | 45.3 |
| Nebraska | 47.4 |
| Tennessee | 48.3 |
| UCLA | 49.1 |
| USC | 49.4 |
| Stanford | 50.4 |
| : | : |
| : | : |
| Hawaii | 94.6 |
| W. Kentucky | 94.6 |
| Cincinnati | 94.7 |
| Georgia So. | 95.0 |
| Utah State | 96.0 |
| Fresno St. | 97.7 |
| UCF | 98.9 |
| Texas State | 99.6 |
| Houston | 102.0 |
| S. Florida | 106.7 |
Average Rank per Conference:
| SEC | 37.3 |
|---|---|
| B12 | 48.3 |
| IND | 53.8 |
| ACC | 54.4 |
| B10 | 57.9 |
| PAC | 59.7 |
| AAC | 76.7 |
| SUN | 76.7 |
| MWC | 76.8 |
| USA | 83.1 |
| MID | 90.9 |
Hardest Cumulative Schedules Played per Conference:
| SEC | 56.0 |
|---|---|
| B12 | 63.4 |
| B10 | 65.1 |
| ACC | 68.0 |
| PAC | 68.4 |
| IND | 71.4 |
| MID | 79.3 |
| SUN | 82.3 |
| MWC | 82.3 |
| AAC | 82.3 |
| USA | 84.4 |
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