Projections last week were marginally better than the previous weeks. I was 53% across all games, 51% across games that would make sense to bet on based on the Ranges, but only 33% on games I highlighted last week. Gotta get better.
Here are this weeks numbers and thoughts:
- I gave ND home field advantage and still project that they won't cover the spread, so at a neutral site they probably do worse
- Clemson won't cover
- Washington St. will continue to hold the PAC12 North
- Utah will cover against Colorado, but will need help from Oregon to seize the PAC12 South
| Away | Home | Vegas | Spread Proj. | Range |
|---|
| Syracuse | Notre Dame | -10.5 | -6.8 | 3.1 |
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| Duke | Clemson | -28.5 | -9.1 | 2.4 |
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| West Virginia | Oklahoma St | 4.5 | 10.4 | 10.9 |
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| Iowa State | Texas | -3.0 | -2.2 | 1.4 |
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| Arizona | Washington St | -9.5 | -30.0 | 1.9 |
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| Arizona State | Oregon | -3.5 | -1.9 | 3.5 |
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| Utah | Colorado | 7.0 | 18.9 | 0.9 |
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| Away | Home | Vegas | Spread Proj. | Range |
|---|
| Toledo | Kent State | 13.0 | 10.2 | 2.1 |
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| Tulane | Houston | -10.0 | -7.7 | 0.9 |
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| FAU | North Texas | -3.5 | -6.2 | 1.2 |
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| Boise State | New Mexico | 19.5 | 29.1 | 1.8 |
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| Memphis | SMU | 8.5 | -10.9 | 2.9 |
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| Northwestern | Minnesota | -1.0 | 4.7 | 14.2 |
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| TCU | Baylor | -2.0 | -7.4 | 0.3 |
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| Arkansas | Miss. State | -21.0 | -44.0 | 12.0 |
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| Michigan St | Nebraska | 2.5 | 15.1 | 8.0 |
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| Middle Tenn. | Kentucky | -16.0 | -11.4 | 2.3 |
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| Ohio State | Maryland | 14.5 | 18.5 | 1.2 |
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| Penn State | Rutgers | 28.0 | 32.4 | 6.1 |
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| Pittsburgh | Wake Forest | 7.0 | 11.6 | 2.6 |
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| South Florida | Temple | -13.5 | -4.9 | 2.7 |
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| NC State | Louisville | 16.5 | 23.0 | 3.8 |
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| FIU | Charlotte | 5.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 |
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| Utah State | Colorado State | 28.0 | 32.9 | 7.1 |
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| Georgia St. | App. St. | -28.5 | -36.0 | 1.4 |
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| UTSA | Marshall | -27.0 | -23.2 | 3.4 |
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| UL-Monroe | Arkansas St. | -8.0 | -9.0 | 0.5 |
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| Texas Tech | Kansas State | 6.0 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
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| Miami (FL) | Virginia Tech | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.0 |
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| Louisiana Tech | Southern Miss | 2.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 |
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| Texas State | Troy | -23.5 | -29.8 | 5.1 |
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| USC | UCLA | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
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| Iowa | Illinois | 14.5 | 20.9 | 8.6 |
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| Bowling Green | Akron | -6.5 | -10.7 | 1.1 |
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| Missouri | Tennessee | 6.0 | 6.2 | 4.1 |
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| Boston College | Florida State | 1.5 | 12.5 | 1.0 |
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| Virginia | Georgia Tech | -6.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
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| Wisconsin | Purdue | -4.5 | -4.9 | 1.3 |
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| Tulsa | Navy | -5.5 | -11.3 | 1.5 |
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| Air Force | Wyoming | -2.5 | -2.9 | 0.4 |
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| Liberty | Auburn | -28.0 | -21.9 | 1.6 |
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| Indiana | Michigan | -28.5 | -29.5 | 1.1 |
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| Massachusetts | Georgia | -41.0 | -43.2 | 13.2 |
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| Oregon State | Washington | -33.5 | -28.3 | 1.5 |
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| Nevada | San Jose State | 14.5 | 17.4 | 3.1 |
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| Georgia South. | CCU | 7.0 | 6.8 | 2.9 |
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| S. Alabama | Louisiana | -17.0 | -20.4 | 5.3 |
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| UAB | Texas A&M | -17.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
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| Connecticut | East Carolina | -17.0 | -9.6 | 0.4 |
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| UTEP | W. Kentucky | -7.0 | -2.8 | 0.9 |
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| Ole Miss | Vanderbilt | -3.0 | -3.6 | 0.4 |
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| Stanford | California | 2.0 | 12.9 | 2.2 |
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| Rice | LSU | -42.0 | -39.9 | 7.3 |
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| Kansas | Oklahoma | -36.0 | -34.9 | 0.2 |
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| Cincinnati | UCF | -7.0 | -7.5 | 0.9 |
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| New Mexico St | BYU | -24.0 | -23.9 | 4.8 |
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| San Diego St. | Fresno St. | -12.5 | -11.6 | 2.1 |
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| UNLV | Hawaii | -6.5 | -11.3 | 1.5 |
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Largest Spread of the Week
| Arkansas | Miss. State | -21.0 | -44.0 | 12.0 |
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Tightest Spread of the Week
| UAB | Texas A&M | -17.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
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Highest Regression Uncertainty of the Week
| Northwestern | Minnesota | -1.0 | 4.7 | 14.2 |
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Least Regression Uncertainty of the Week
| Kansas | Oklahoma | -36.0 | -34.9 | 0.2 |
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