UTAH WINS THE PAC12 SOUTH!
It's been a roller coaster of a ride to get here, but for the first time since joining the PAC we're headed to the championship. Shout out to Oregon for the assist. They moved up 11 spots, while Utah moved up 3 to 25th. A win over BYU next week probably won't help us much unless it's a massive blowout, but obviously a win in the championship could launch us up quite a few spots. The North will be represented by whoever wins the Apple Cup next week, so either way it will be a rematch of a game that Utah previously lost this season.
In other news, Bama stays in first, Clemson moved above Georgia, and UCF moved to 5th. If UCF can win against USF and win a conference championship, I suspect they'll move into the top 4. There are a lot of other big games this next week that are going to decide a lot of conference championship matchups. The SEC 'ship is already set as Bama vs UGA, but both have decent opponents this week in Auburn and Georgia Tech. Clemson is home against SC, ND is at USC, Michigan is at Ohio St, Oklahoma is at W. Virginia, LSU is at A&M, and Utah St is at Boise St. Lots of big games.
The biggest movers of the week were Ohio (+17), thanks to their upset over Buffalo, and Texas Tech (-18) who were nearly blanked by K State.
Also, I hadn't noticed until this week, but the SEC East is absolutely dominating the strength of schedule rankings. All 7 of them are in the top 9 for most difficult schedules played.
As always thanks for being here and please let me know if you have feedback or see issues (@NateEMiller). For those that are here for the first time, this system is entirely data-driven and uses a set of metrics I've identified to measure the actual performance of all of the teams simultaneously and rank them all against each other using a multi-regression technique. If a team comes up higher than seems logical, it's not because I think they're that good, it's because something in their performance is saying they are probably better than what we realize. You can find more details here.
Hardest Schedule Played per Team:
Average Rank per Conference:
Hardest Cumulative Schedules Played per Conference:
It's been a roller coaster of a ride to get here, but for the first time since joining the PAC we're headed to the championship. Shout out to Oregon for the assist. They moved up 11 spots, while Utah moved up 3 to 25th. A win over BYU next week probably won't help us much unless it's a massive blowout, but obviously a win in the championship could launch us up quite a few spots. The North will be represented by whoever wins the Apple Cup next week, so either way it will be a rematch of a game that Utah previously lost this season.
In other news, Bama stays in first, Clemson moved above Georgia, and UCF moved to 5th. If UCF can win against USF and win a conference championship, I suspect they'll move into the top 4. There are a lot of other big games this next week that are going to decide a lot of conference championship matchups. The SEC 'ship is already set as Bama vs UGA, but both have decent opponents this week in Auburn and Georgia Tech. Clemson is home against SC, ND is at USC, Michigan is at Ohio St, Oklahoma is at W. Virginia, LSU is at A&M, and Utah St is at Boise St. Lots of big games.
The biggest movers of the week were Ohio (+17), thanks to their upset over Buffalo, and Texas Tech (-18) who were nearly blanked by K State.
Also, I hadn't noticed until this week, but the SEC East is absolutely dominating the strength of schedule rankings. All 7 of them are in the top 9 for most difficult schedules played.
As always thanks for being here and please let me know if you have feedback or see issues (@NateEMiller). For those that are here for the first time, this system is entirely data-driven and uses a set of metrics I've identified to measure the actual performance of all of the teams simultaneously and rank them all against each other using a multi-regression technique. If a team comes up higher than seems logical, it's not because I think they're that good, it's because something in their performance is saying they are probably better than what we realize. You can find more details here.
| Rank | Team | W | L | Conf | RTPS | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 11 | 0 | SEC | 1.000 | 0 |
| 2 | Clemson | 11 | 0 | ACC | 0.971 | +1 |
| 3 | Georgia | 10 | 1 | SEC | 0.956 | -1 |
| 4 | Notre Dame | 11 | 0 | IND | 0.937 | 0 |
| 5 | UCF | 10 | 0 | AAC | 0.854 | +2 |
| 6 | Michigan | 10 | 1 | B10 | 0.842 | -1 |
| 7 | LSU | 9 | 2 | SEC | 0.798 | -1 |
| 8 | Oklahoma | 10 | 1 | B12 | 0.777 | 0 |
| 9 | Wash. St. | 10 | 1 | PAC | 0.747 | +1 |
| 10 | Missouri | 7 | 4 | SEC | 0.717 | +14 |
| 11 | Boise State | 9 | 2 | MWC | 0.717 | +1 |
| 12 | Kentucky | 8 | 3 | SEC | 0.715 | +9 |
| 13 | Ohio State | 10 | 1 | B10 | 0.713 | -2 |
| 14 | W. Virginia | 8 | 2 | B12 | 0.706 | -5 |
| 15 | Florida | 8 | 3 | SEC | 0.693 | -2 |
| 16 | Fresno St. | 9 | 2 | MWC | 0.690 | +10 |
| 17 | Miss. St. | 7 | 4 | SEC | 0.690 | -1 |
| 18 | Utah State | 10 | 1 | MWC | 0.684 | -1 |
| 19 | Penn State | 8 | 3 | B10 | 0.676 | +1 |
| 20 | Army | 9 | 2 | IND | 0.675 | -6 |
| 21 | Texas A&M | 7 | 4 | SEC | 0.675 | +13 |
| 22 | Troy | 9 | 2 | SUN | 0.659 | +5 |
| 23 | App. St. | 8 | 2 | SUN | 0.656 | +2 |
| 24 | Cincinnati | 9 | 2 | AAC | 0.654 | -9 |
| 25 | Utah | 8 | 3 | PAC | 0.653 | +3 |
| 26 | Texas | 8 | 3 | B12 | 0.647 | +3 |
| 27 | Syracuse | 8 | 3 | ACC | 0.641 | -4 |
| 28 | Pittsburgh | 7 | 4 | ACC | 0.634 | +5 |
| 29 | Buffalo | 9 | 2 | MID | 0.627 | -10 |
| 30 | Georgia So. | 8 | 3 | SUN | 0.620 | +9 |
| 31 | Wash. | 8 | 3 | PAC | 0.619 | +1 |
| 32 | UAB | 9 | 2 | USA | 0.613 | -14 |
| 33 | NC State | 7 | 3 | ACC | 0.611 | +2 |
| 34 | S. Carolina | 6 | 4 | SEC | 0.611 | +3 |
| 35 | Auburn | 7 | 4 | SEC | 0.611 | +8 |
| 36 | Duke | 7 | 4 | ACC | 0.609 | -6 |
| 37 | Northwestern | 7 | 4 | B10 | 0.601 | +4 |
| 38 | Temple | 7 | 4 | AAC | 0.594 | +9 |
| 39 | Iowa State | 6 | 4 | B12 | 0.593 | -17 |
| 40 | Ohio | 7 | 4 | MID | 0.591 | +17 |
| 41 | Iowa | 7 | 4 | B10 | 0.587 | -1 |
| 42 | Stanford | 6 | 4 | PAC | 0.573 | +2 |
| 43 | Virginia | 7 | 4 | ACC | 0.567 | -5 |
| 44 | Mich. St. | 6 | 5 | B10 | 0.564 | -13 |
| 45 | BC | 7 | 4 | ACC | 0.561 | -9 |
| 46 | Marshall | 7 | 3 | USA | 0.558 | +6 |
| 47 | Houston | 8 | 3 | AAC | 0.556 | +7 |
| 48 | North Texas | 8 | 3 | USA | 0.554 | +3 |
| 49 | Georgia Tech | 7 | 4 | ACC | 0.551 | +6 |
| 50 | Arkansas St. | 7 | 4 | SUN | 0.542 | +6 |
| 51 | Tennessee | 5 | 6 | SEC | 0.541 | -9 |
| 52 | Wisconsin | 7 | 4 | B10 | 0.536 | +7 |
| 53 | Mid. Tenn. | 7 | 4 | USA | 0.534 | -5 |
| 54 | N. Illinois | 7 | 4 | MID | 0.533 | -9 |
| 55 | Oregon | 7 | 4 | PAC | 0.517 | +11 |
| 56 | Nevada | 7 | 4 | MWC | 0.515 | +4 |
| 57 | Vanderbilt | 5 | 6 | SEC | 0.514 | +12 |
| 58 | Arizona St. | 6 | 5 | PAC | 0.513 | -9 |
| 59 | BYU | 6 | 5 | IND | 0.510 | +2 |
| 60 | LA Tech | 7 | 4 | USA | 0.510 | -14 |
| 61 | Oklahoma St. | 6 | 5 | B12 | 0.510 | +16 |
| 62 | Miami (FL) | 6 | 5 | ACC | 0.508 | +8 |
| 63 | Florida Int. | 8 | 3 | USA | 0.502 | +5 |
| 64 | Purdue | 5 | 6 | B10 | 0.499 | -14 |
| 65 | San Diego St. | 7 | 4 | MWC | 0.491 | -12 |
| 66 | Memphis | 7 | 4 | AAC | 0.488 | +16 |
| 67 | E. Mich. | 6 | 5 | MID | 0.481 | -5 |
| 68 | Toledo | 6 | 5 | MID | 0.480 | +8 |
| 69 | UL Lafayette | 6 | 5 | SUN | 0.476 | +5 |
| 70 | Florida St. | 5 | 6 | ACC | 0.467 | +14 |
| 71 | S. Florida | 7 | 4 | AAC | 0.466 | -13 |
| 72 | Florida Atl. | 5 | 6 | USA | 0.466 | -7 |
| 73 | California | 6 | 4 | PAC | 0.450 | +12 |
| 74 | Ole Miss | 5 | 6 | SEC | 0.448 | -7 |
| 75 | Miami (OH) | 5 | 6 | MID | 0.448 | +15 |
| 76 | Kansas St. | 5 | 6 | B12 | 0.447 | +13 |
| 77 | UL Monroe | 6 | 5 | SUN | 0.446 | -5 |
| 78 | Indiana | 5 | 6 | B10 | 0.446 | +2 |
| 79 | Tulane | 5 | 6 | AAC | 0.445 | -15 |
| 80 | Hawaii | 7 | 5 | MWC | 0.443 | +8 |
| 81 | Texas Tech | 5 | 6 | B12 | 0.443 | -18 |
| 82 | TCU | 5 | 6 | B12 | 0.440 | +5 |
| 83 | S. Miss. | 5 | 5 | USA | 0.438 | +8 |
| 84 | SMU | 5 | 6 | AAC | 0.438 | -13 |
| 85 | Wake Forest | 5 | 6 | ACC | 0.436 | -12 |
| 86 | Wyoming | 5 | 6 | MWC | 0.430 | +9 |
| 87 | Maryland | 5 | 6 | B10 | 0.429 | -6 |
| 88 | Arizona | 5 | 6 | PAC | 0.428 | -2 |
| 89 | Coastal Caro. | 5 | 6 | SUN | 0.428 | -10 |
| 90 | W. Michigan | 6 | 5 | MID | 0.407 | -7 |
| 91 | Baylor | 5 | 6 | B12 | 0.407 | -16 |
| 92 | USC | 5 | 6 | PAC | 0.398 | -14 |
| 93 | Nebraska | 4 | 7 | B10 | 0.395 | +6 |
| 94 | Minnesota | 5 | 6 | B10 | 0.377 | 0 |
| 95 | Virginia Tech | 4 | 6 | ACC | 0.365 | -2 |
| 96 | Air Force | 4 | 7 | MWC | 0.358 | -4 |
| 97 | Colorado | 5 | 6 | PAC | 0.357 | 0 |
| 98 | UCLA | 3 | 8 | PAC | 0.352 | +3 |
| 99 | Liberty | 4 | 6 | IND | 0.350 | -3 |
| 100 | Charlotte | 4 | 7 | USA | 0.316 | 0 |
| 101 | Old Dominion | 4 | 7 | USA | 0.307 | +3 |
| 102 | UMASS | 4 | 8 | MID | 0.306 | 0 |
| 103 | E. Carolina | 3 | 7 | AAC | 0.298 | +5 |
| 104 | Navy | 3 | 8 | AAC | 0.298 | +2 |
| 105 | Akron | 4 | 6 | MID | 0.281 | -7 |
| 106 | Kansas | 3 | 8 | B12 | 0.263 | -1 |
| 107 | Ball State | 4 | 7 | MID | 0.262 | +9 |
| 108 | Illinois | 4 | 7 | B10 | 0.258 | -5 |
| 109 | New Mexico | 3 | 8 | MWC | 0.241 | 0 |
| 110 | Louisville | 2 | 9 | ACC | 0.239 | -3 |
| 111 | Arkansas | 2 | 9 | SEC | 0.234 | 0 |
| 112 | Colorado St. | 3 | 8 | MWC | 0.234 | +2 |
| 113 | UTSA | 3 | 8 | USA | 0.225 | -3 |
| 114 | N. Carolina | 2 | 8 | ACC | 0.221 | +9 |
| 115 | S. Alabama | 2 | 9 | SUN | 0.217 | -2 |
| 116 | Oregon St. | 2 | 9 | PAC | 0.212 | -4 |
| 117 | Texas State | 3 | 8 | SUN | 0.210 | -2 |
| 118 | Bowling Grn | 3 | 8 | MID | 0.188 | +7 |
| 119 | Georgia St. | 2 | 9 | SUN | 0.185 | 0 |
| 120 | San Jose St. | 1 | 10 | MWC | 0.181 | 0 |
| 121 | UNLV | 3 | 8 | MWC | 0.176 | -3 |
| 122 | NM St. | 3 | 8 | IND | 0.172 | -5 |
| 123 | Kent State | 2 | 9 | MID | 0.165 | -2 |
| 124 | Tulsa | 2 | 9 | AAC | 0.149 | -2 |
| 125 | W. Kentucky | 2 | 9 | USA | 0.144 | +2 |
| 126 | Rutgers | 1 | 10 | B10 | 0.141 | -2 |
| 127 | Rice | 1 | 11 | USA | 0.073 | +2 |
| 128 | C. Mich. | 1 | 10 | MID | 0.055 | +2 |
| 129 | Connecticut | 1 | 10 | AAC | 0.039 | -3 |
| 130 | UTEP | 1 | 10 | USA | 0.000 | -2 |
Hardest Schedule Played per Team:
| Tennessee | 44.1 |
|---|---|
| Vanderbilt | 45.7 |
| Georgia | 46.1 |
| S. Carolina | 46.3 |
| Kentucky | 47.3 |
| Missouri | 47.3 |
| Texas A&M | 47.8 |
| Miss. St. | 48.9 |
| Florida | 51.4 |
| UCLA | 51.5 |
| : | : |
| : | : |
| Bowling Grn | 86.5 |
| W. Kentucky | 87.7 |
| Marshall | 88.6 |
| UAB | 89.2 |
| UTEP | 89.4 |
| Memphis | 91.2 |
| Houston | 93.6 |
| North Texas | 93.6 |
| Florida Int. | 96.7 |
| Utah State | 98.2 |
Average Rank per Conference:
| SEC | 32.0 |
|---|---|
| ACC | 57.1 |
| B12 | 58.4 |
| IND | 60.8 |
| B10 | 61.6 |
| PAC | 65.3 |
| SUN | 71.1 |
| AAC | 72.8 |
| MWC | 74.2 |
| USA | 82.4 |
| MID | 85.1 |
Hardest Cumulative Schedules Played per Conference:
| SEC | 51.3 |
|---|---|
| ACC | 64.2 |
| B10 | 64.6 |
| B12 | 66.3 |
| PAC | 69.9 |
| IND | 73.5 |
| SUN | 76.3 |
| AAC | 76.6 |
| MWC | 77.7 |
| MID | 78.4 |
| USA | 82.7 |
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