If I had the time, I would put a lot more work into this and figure out how to improve it. I've never really done that. This is literally just a straight extrapolation of one week to the data the I use for the NEMindex. I'm sure there are more things I could be including that would improve it, but who has the time to figure that out? If I could figure out how to get my machine learning experience to apply to this problem that may very well be the way to go, but I've never figured it out and haven't put in much effort. So this is what we have for now.
This week:
- Utah may be in trouble on the road, but I honestly have my doubts
- I need Oregon to beat USC, and though Vegas agrees that they will, I predict that USC may keep the PAC-12 South to themselves.
- I have Florida beating UGA. I don't think I accounted for home field in that number, so probably adjust it ~4 points in UGAs direction, but who knows how that may go?
- S. Carolina, Louisiana, and Auburn all cover.
| Away | Home | Vegas | Spread Proj. | Range |
|---|
| Georgia | Florida | 6.5 | -7.4 | 1.2 |
|---|
| Oregon | USC | 4.5 | -3.8 | 0.7 |
|---|
| Utah | Washington | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
|---|
| Away | Home | Vegas | Spread Proj. | Range |
|---|
| West Virginia | Baylor | -17.5 | -30.1 | 0.7 |
|---|
| Ga. Southern | App. St. | -15.0 | -20.6 | 3.0 |
|---|
| Navy | Connecticut | 27.0 | 34.0 | 5.4 |
|---|
| Boston College | Syracuse | -3.0 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
|---|
| Houston | UCF | -22.0 | -20.0 | 3.2 |
|---|
| UTSA | Texas A&M | -38.0 | -34.2 | 9.9 |
|---|
| N. Illinois | C. Michigan | 1.0 | -15.4 | 1.9 |
|---|
| Nebraska | Purdue | 3.0 | 10.3 | 0.8 |
|---|
| NC State | Wake Forest | -7.5 | -26.1 | 1.7 |
|---|
| Old Dominion | FIU | -17.5 | -13.8 | 1.7 |
|---|
| Liberty | Massachusetts | 23.0 | 11.6 | 6.7 |
|---|
| Buffalo | E. Michigan | 1.0 | -1.8 | 3.2 |
|---|
| Michigan | Maryland | 21.0 | 20.2 | 1.8 |
|---|
| Akron | Bowling Green | -6.0 | -14.6 | 5.7 |
|---|
| Virginia Tech | Notre Dame | -17.5 | -11.2 | 2.2 |
|---|
| TROY | CCU | 1.0 | -6.8 | 1.0 |
|---|
| UTEP | North Texas | -23.0 | -10.4 | 0.5 |
|---|
| TCU | Oklahoma State | -3.0 | -9.4 | 1.6 |
|---|
| Army | Air Force | -14.5 | -24.8 | 10.9 |
|---|
| UNLV | Colorado State | -8.5 | -8.0 | 0.6 |
|---|
| Arkansas St. | UL-Monroe | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
|---|
| Marshall | Rice | 10.5 | 18.0 | 3.9 |
|---|
| Kansas State | Kansas | 6.0 | 21.0 | 1.4 |
|---|
| Middle Tenn. | Charlotte | 3.0 | -5.0 | 3.0 |
|---|
| Miami (FL) | Florida State | -3.0 | -9.1 | 0.8 |
|---|
| Rutgers | Illinois | -20.5 | -19.3 | 1.7 |
|---|
| FAU | W. Kentucky | -1.5 | -0.5 | 3.4 |
|---|
| Tulsa | Tulane | -10.5 | -16.6 | 3.4 |
|---|
| Miss. State | Arkansas | 7.5 | 7.8 | 1.4 |
|---|
| Pittsburgh | Georgia Tech | 7.5 | 16.2 | 9.0 |
|---|
| Oregon State | Arizona | -5.5 | 0.4 | 3.2 |
|---|
| Texas State | Louisiana | -22.5 | -36.8 | 6.5 |
|---|
| Ole Miss | Auburn | -19.0 | -30.0 | 0.7 |
|---|
| Cincinnati | East Carolina | 23.5 | 26.8 | 5.6 |
|---|
| UAB | Tennessee | -12.0 | 6.7 | 0.6 |
|---|
| Northwestern | Indiana | -11.5 | -28.4 | 3.1 |
|---|
| SMU | Memphis | -6.0 | -1.8 | 0.4 |
|---|
| Vanderbilt | South Carolina | -15.0 | -21.5 | 2.5 |
|---|
| Virginia | North Carolina | -2.5 | -3.8 | 0.7 |
|---|
| Colorado | UCLA | -6.5 | -9.2 | 3.8 |
|---|
| BYU | Utah State | -3.5 | -14.7 | 0.5 |
|---|
| Boise State | San Jose State | 17.0 | 18.4 | 4.4 |
|---|
| New Mexico | Nevada | -3.5 | -13.4 | 3.6 |
|---|
| Fresno State | Hawaii | -2.0 | -16.7 | 3.9 |
|---|
Largest Spread of the Week
| TexasState | Louisiana | -22.5 | -36.8 | 6.5 |
|---|
Tightest Spread of the Week
| OregonState | Arizona | -5.5 | 0.4 | 3.2 |
|---|
Highest Regression Uncertainty of the Week
| Army | AirForce | -14.5 | -24.8 | 10.9 |
|---|
Least Regression Uncertainty of the Week
| SMU | Memphis | -6.0 | -1.8 | 0.4 |
|---|
Are you saying Oregon St is getting 5.5 and should be laying 16? Oregon State Arizona -5.5 16.2 9.0
ReplyDeleteand same here are you saying Nevada is laying 3 1/2 and should be getting 18?
ReplyDeleteNew Mexico Nevada -3.5 18.4 4.4