Here are the first set of predictions based on the NEMindex for this season. The convergence was probably good enough last week to make predictions, but I was way too busy with other stuff (I recently bought a new house and have tons to do) last week and missed my window to run the necessary numbers.
As a reminder on what this all means and how to read it, the instructions are
HERE. I'm going to be putting up some games of particular interest in the top table, and putting up all of the rest just below so that I can reference them on my phone throughout the week. I'll include Utah at the top every week so I can find it easily.
Highlights:
- Utah wins but doesn't cover
- LSU doesn't cover at home; I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Auburn win this one
- Ohio St (the NEMindex #1) wins at home, giving Wisconsin its second loss
- I have ND winning at Michigan, while Vegas has Michigan winning by less than the HFA. This one really could go any direction.
| Away | Home | Vegas | Spread Proj. | Range |
|---|
| California | Utah | -21.5 | -12.4 | 6.2 |
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| Auburn | LSU | -10.5 | -9.8 | 3.1 |
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| Wisconsin | Ohio State | -14.5 | -10.0 | 3.4 |
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| Oklahoma | Kansas St | 23.5 | 9.0 | 3.9 |
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| Notre Dame | Michigan | -1.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
|---|
| Away | Home | Vegas | Spread Proj. | Range |
|---|
| SMU | Houston | 14.5 | 18.7 | 5.4 |
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| USC | Colorado | 13.5 | 3.8 | 5.4 |
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| Iowa | Northwestern | 10.5 | 25.1 | 1.5 |
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| App. St | S. Alabama | 26.5 | 28.5 | 8.3 |
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| Miss. St | Texas A&M | -10.5 | -11.6 | 3.7 |
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| San Jose St | Army | -9.5 | -4.6 | 3.5 |
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| Bowling Green | W. Michigan | -26.5 | -33.3 | 9.7 |
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| Miami (FL) | Pittsburgh | -5.5 | -21.5 | 6.7 |
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| Illinois | Purdue | -9.5 | -2.2 | 2.4 |
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| Liberty | Rutgers | 7.5 | 17.7 | 1.3 |
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| Southern Miss | Rice | 10.0 | 8.4 | 9.1 |
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| Nevada | Wyoming | -14.0 | -10.7 | 1.5 |
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| Ohio | Ball State | -2.5 | -18.0 | 3.3 |
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| W. Kentucky | Marshall | -5.5 | 7.8 | 1.6 |
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| New Mexico St | Ga. Southern | -14.5 | -23.9 | 0.6 |
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| FIU | Middle Tenn. | 2.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 |
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| Oklahoma St | Iowa State | -10.5 | -12.6 | 0.3 |
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| Maryland | Minnesota | -17.0 | -36.6 | 5.9 |
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| E. Michigan | Toledo | -3.5 | -7.1 | 4.0 |
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| Akron | N. Illinois | -24.0 | -7.7 | 0.8 |
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| Arizona | Stanford | 1.0 | 5.2 | 1.6 |
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| Texas | TCU | 1.0 | 6.9 | 3.6 |
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| Indiana | Nebraska | 1.0 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
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| Syracuse | Florida State | -10.5 | -15.5 | 1.7 |
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| C. Michigan | Buffalo | -2.5 | 1.7 | 3.7 |
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| FAU | Old Dominion | 13.5 | 22.8 | 4.5 |
|---|
| Miami (OH) | Kent State | -2.5 | 2.3 | 3.3 |
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| North Texas | Charlotte | 4.0 | -5.3 | 2.7 |
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| Virginia | Louisville | 3.5 | -0.5 | 1.1 |
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| Penn State | Michigan St | 6.5 | 11.0 | 5.5 |
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| Tulane | Navy | -3.5 | -13.9 | 2.3 |
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| Connecticut | UMass | 10.0 | -1.2 | 1.7 |
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| South Florida | East Carolina | 2.0 | -0.4 | 1.4 |
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| Hawaii | New Mexico | 10.0 | 32.7 | 18.7 |
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| Duke | UNC | -3.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 |
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| South Carolina | Tennessee | 4.0 | 8.7 | 2.5 |
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| TexasTech | Kansas | 3.5 | 5.7 | 3.4 |
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| Memphis | Tulsa | 10.5 | 21.3 | 4.9 |
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| Texas State | Arkansas St | -11.5 | -15.5 | 2.3 |
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| UCF | Temple | 10.5 | 2.6 | 3.8 |
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| Arkansas | Alabama | -32.0 | -42.8 | 5.6 |
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| Troy | Georgia St | -1.0 | -23.4 | 0.9 |
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| Arizona St | UCLA | 3.5 | 17.6 | 4.1 |
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| Colorado St | Fresno St | -14.0 | -16.3 | 5.3 |
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| Missouri | Kentucky | 10.5 | 1.5 | 10.9 |
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| Boston College | Clemson | -34.5 | -22.5 | 4.7 |
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| Louisiana Tech | UTEP | 20.5 | 25.8 | 3.0 |
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| Utah State | Air Force | -3.5 | -4.1 | 0.2 |
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| San Diego St | UNLV | 13.0 | 24.4 | 4.2 |
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| Washington St | Oregon | -14.0 | -27.0 | 8.1 |
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Largest Spread of the Week
| Arkansas | Alabama | -32.0 | -42.8 | 5.6 |
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Tightest Spread of the Week
| South Florida | East Carolina | 2.0 | -0.4 | 1.4 |
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Highest Regression Uncertainty of the Week
| Hawaii | New Mexico | 10.0 | 32.7 | 18.7 |
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Least Regression Uncertainty of the Week
| Utah State | Air Force | -3.5 | -4.1 | 0.2 |
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