I was late getting my predictions out last week so I tried to get on it early this week. Because I was late I missed predicting a few games, but of those I did predict it looks like I went 26/47 against the spread. I'll take it, that's enough to make money.
So for this week it looks like I have 58 games to predict. My Utes are at Arizona this week and open as 22 point favorite. Considering that they are averaging a 29 point margin against all PAC-12 opponents so far, I feel like the math's estimate of 29 is pretty reasonable.
So many of my predictions are very close to Vegas this week. Makes it very difficult to have much confidence in which way to go on most of them.
Some other takeaways:
- Ohio State wins it but doesn't cover
- Math says Baylor covers, but that one could go anywhere. They're decent at home so they probably got it.
- Same story with Georgia
| Away | Home | Vegas | Spread Proj. | Range |
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| Utah | Arizona | 22.0 | 29.1 | 2.7 |
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| Penn State | Ohio State | -18.0 | -7.1 | 1.7 |
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| Texas A&M | Georgia | -13.5 | -12.8 | 0.7 |
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| Texas | Baylor | -5.5 | -8.9 | 4.4 |
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| Michigan | Indiana | 8.5 | 6.2 | 0.5 |
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| Away | Home | Vegas | Spread Proj. | Range |
|---|
| E. Michigan | N. Illinois | -4.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
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| Ohio | Bowling Green | 20.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
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| Akron | Miami (OH) | -31.0 | -36.4 | 10.6 |
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| Toledo | Buffalo | -8.0 | -12.9 | 2.6 |
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| NC State | Georgia Tech | -1.5 | -1.1 | 0.2 |
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| Colorado St | Wyoming | -7.0 | -17.7 | 6.1 |
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| Illinois | Iowa | -14.5 | -12.5 | 0.5 |
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| Kansas | Iowa State | -24.5 | -20.9 | 6.6 |
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| Michigan St. | Rutgers | 20.5 | 10.7 | 2.5 |
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| Liberty | Virginia | -17.0 | -17.0 | 3.4 |
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| BYU | Massachusetts | 40.0 | 38.7 | 21.6 |
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| Ball State | Kent State | 3.5 | -1.5 | 1.3 |
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| East Carolina | Connecticut | 13.5 | -1.1 | 0.1 |
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| Minnesota | Northwestern | 13.5 | 25.4 | 5.6 |
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| Oklahoma St | West Virginia | 7.0 | 17.2 | 1.0 |
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| UCF | Tulane | 6.0 | 9.9 | 6.2 |
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| Air Force | New Mexico | 22.0 | 27.3 | 1.6 |
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| S. Alabama | Georgia State | -11.0 | -23.9 | 2.9 |
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| Texas St. | App. St. | -30.0 | -32.9 | 3.1 |
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| Boston College | Notre Dame | -20.0 | -26.4 | 5.7 |
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| Ga. Southern | Arkansas St. | -1.0 | -3.8 | 1.0 |
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| Pittsburgh | Virginia Tech | -3.5 | 2.6 | 4.4 |
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| UCLA | USC | -13.5 | -16.1 | 0.9 |
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| Marshall | Charlotte | 7.0 | 10.4 | 4.4 |
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| SMU | Navy | -4.0 | -1.0 | 0.8 |
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| Nebraska | Maryland | 4.5 | 3.6 | 2.0 |
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| Louisiana Tech | UAB | -5.0 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
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| W. Kentucky | So. Miss | -4.5 | -9.1 | 1.7 |
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| North Texas | Rice | 5.5 | -2.0 | 1.7 |
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| UTEP | New Mexico St | -7.5 | -7.1 | 1.9 |
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| Purdue | Wisconsin | -24.0 | -27.8 | 1.5 |
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| Memphis | South Florida | 14.5 | 16.5 | 3.1 |
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| San Jose State | UNLV | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
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| Syracuse | Louisville | -8.5 | -23.2 | 1.5 |
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| California | Stanford | -3.0 | 5.3 | 0.9 |
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| Old Dominion | Middle Tenn. | -15.0 | -7.3 | 1.7 |
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| CCU | ULM | -6.0 | -8.3 | 0.6 |
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| Troy | Louisiana | -14.0 | -26.3 | 8.8 |
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| FAU | UTSA | 20.0 | 24.6 | 7.7 |
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| Miami (FL) | FIU | 18.5 | 10.1 | 10.3 |
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| Arkansas | LSU | -44.0 | -45.5 | 7.7 |
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| Temple | Cincinnati | -10.5 | -11.7 | 1.3 |
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| Kansas State | Texas Tech | -2.5 | 8.3 | 0.3 |
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| Duke | Wake Forest | -7.0 | -18.0 | 1.3 |
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| Houston | Tulsa | -3.0 | -4.9 | 3.7 |
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| Oregon | Arizona State | 14.5 | 17.1 | 2.6 |
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| Tennessee | Missouri | -5.0 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
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| TCU | Oklahoma | -18.0 | -21.9 | 3.1 |
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| Oregon St. | Washington St | -11.0 | -1.0 | 1.3 |
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| Washington | Colorado | 14.5 | 15.2 | 5.9 |
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| Boise State | Utah State | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 |
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| Nevada | Fresno State | -13.5 | 6.1 | 1.9 |
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| San Diego St | Hawaii | -3.0 | 7.5 | 3.2 |
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Largest Spread of the Week
| Arkansas | LSU | -44.0 | -45.5 | 7.7 |
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Tightest Spread of the Week
Highest Regression Uncertainty of the Week
| BYU | Massachusetts | 40.0 | 38.7 | 21.6 |
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Least Regression Uncertainty of the Week
| East Carolina | Connecticut | 13.5 | -1.1 | 0.1 |
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