2019 - NEMindex Projections for Week 15 (Conference Championships)

The final week is upon us! The five conference championships are all at neutral sites this week and I think I properly accounted for that in my calculations.  We all expect these games to be tight, but my calculations put them all much tighter than even Vegas puts them, and my regression ranges are super tiny.  So basically, I have nobody covering in those games.  I do have the same winners as Vegas in all 5 games too though, so that's reasonable.

Last week was bad! Only went 30/64. Friggin overtimes killed me over and over again.  This thing is supposed to get better as the season goes on, but that sure wasn't the case last week. So many teams have been so inconsistent and unpredictable this year.

So that it for this week. I'm going to the PAC12 championship in Santa Clara this weekend. Here's hoping Utah covers and gets into the Playoff!  #GoUtes

Neutral site games:

Team 1	Team 2	Vegas	Spread Proj.	Range
Utah	Oregon	6.5	2.5	0.2
Baylor	Oklahoma	-9.0	-2.2	0.1
Virginia	Clemson	-28.5	-7.6	0.1
Ohio State	Wisconsin	16.5	1.5	0.5
Georgia	LSU	-7.0	-0.6	0.1

Games with a home team:

Away	Home	Vegas	Spread Proj.	Range
Louisiana	App. St.	-6.5	-5.2	1.4
Miami (Ohio)	C. Michigan	-7.0	-14.1	4.5
UAB	FAU	-7.5	-11.3	1.1
Cincinnati	Memphis	-9.5	-6.6	0.8
Hawaii	Boise State	-13.5	-8.3	3.9

Largest Spread of the Week

Miami (Ohio)	C. Michigan	-7.0	-14.1	4.5

Tightest Spread of the Week

Georgia	LSU	-7.0	-0.6	0.1

Highest Regression Uncertainty of the Week

Miami (Ohio)	C. Michigan	-7.0	-14.1	4.5

Least Regression Uncertainty of the Week
   A three-way spread across the Big 12, ACC, and SEC championship games.