This is my first week of doing projections for this season. Quick reminder on what you're seeing here. The first column after the teams is the current spread projections as taken from sportsline dot com. They obviously evolve as people make bets, so they may change. This is just a snapshot of those from when I pulled the data this morning. A positive number means that the Away team will win, a negative means that the Home team will win by the value. The next column is my projection of the same thing in the same format. The final column is the range on my projections based on different assumptions in the regression algorithms I'm using.
So, using FSU @ WF as the example: the dominant "Vegas" prediction is that FSU will win by 20.5. My algorithm says FSU wins by somewhere between 24.0 and 27.4 (that's 25.7+/-1.7).
As always, I make no guarantees with these projections. This is for entertainment purposes only. I do not encourage gambling and accept no liability for whatever decisions you make for yourself.
| Away | Home | Vegas | Spread Proj. | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida St. | WF | 20.5 | 25.7 | 3.4 |
| Houston | Kansas St. | -17.5 | -22.5 | 1.3 |
| Indiana | Penn St. | -31.0 | -28.0 | 6.2 |
| Maryland | NW | 14.0 | 8.8 | 2.0 |
| Oklahoma | Kansas | 7.5 | 8.5 | 0.4 |
| S. Caro. | Texas A&M | -17.0 | -9.2 | 0.4 |
| Tulsa | SMU | -20.5 | -14.4 | 7.8 |
| UConn | BC | -14.5 | -16.3 | 8.8 |
| UMass | Army | -10.0 | -4.8 | 0.7 |
| W. Virginia | UCF | -6.5 | 6.2 | 0.2 |
| W. Mich. | E. Mich. | 3.0 | -5.9 | 1.5 |
| Clemson | NC State | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.6 |
| Memphis | N. Texas | 6.5 | 20.3 | 3.3 |
| BYU | Texas | -20.0 | -16.1 | 5.0 |
| Duke | Louisville | -6.0 | -2.8 | 0.2 |
| E. Carolina | UTSA | -18.0 | -17.0 | 0.8 |
| Iowa St. | Baylor | 3.0 | 13.6 | 0.4 |
| Miami-OH | Ohio | -7.0 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| Mich. St. | Minnesota | -6.5 | -18.1 | 6.8 |
| Miss. State | Auburn | -6.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| Oregon | Utah | 6.5 | -2.8 | 0.2 |
| Pittsburgh | ND | -20.5 | -26.0 | 5.0 |
| Purdue | Nebraska | -1.0 | -10.5 | 1.2 |
| Georgia | Florida | 14.0 | 6.3 | 1.7 |
| S. Miss | App. St. | -16.0 | -8.4 | 2.5 |
| Virginia | Miami (Fla.) | -18.5 | -11.8 | 1.6 |
| Tulane | Rice | 10.0 | 22.0 | 2.1 |
| USC | California | 10.0 | 14.2 | 3.3 |
| Arkansas St. | UL-Monroe | -1.5 | 11.6 | 5.8 |
| Louisiana | S. Alabama | -11.0 | -4.4 | 1.6 |
| Wyoming | Boise St. | -4.5 | 13.3 | 6.5 |
| Marshall | C. Carolina | 3.0 | -4.7 | 1.0 |
| Air Force | Colorado St. | 14.5 | 23.6 | 3.8 |
| Tennessee | Kentucky | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Troy | Texas St. | 6.5 | 10.9 | 2.1 |
| Wash. | Stanford | 27.5 | 30.3 | 3.7 |
| Colorado | UCLA | -15.0 | -10.6 | 0.1 |
| Ohio St. | Wisconsin | 14.5 | 7.3 | 0.4 |
| Vanderbilt | Ole Miss | -24.5 | -28.2 | 2.5 |
| Cincinnati | Ok. St. | -7.5 | -20.1 | 9.1 |
| ODU | JMU | -20.5 | -14.8 | 13.1 |
| N. Carolina | GA. Tech | 11.5 | 14.3 | 2.0 |
| Wash. St. | Arizona St. | 5.5 | 19.9 | 2.9 |
| UNM | Nevada | Pk | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| Oregon St. | Arizona | 3.0 | 12.3 | 1.1 |
| UNLV | Fresno St. | -9.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| San Jose St. | Hawaii | 10.5 | 16.1 | 4.7 |
Largest Spread of the Week
| Washington | Stanford | 27.5 | 30.3 | 3.7 |
|---|
Tightest Spread of the Week
| UNLV | Fresno St. | -9.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
|---|
Highest Regression Uncertainty of the Week
| Old Dominion | James Madison | -20.5 | -14.8 | 13.1 |
|---|
Least Regression Uncertainty of the Week
| New Mexico | Nevada | Pk | 0.9 | 0.1 |
|---|
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