NEMindex through Week 8

Happy Sunday everyone. Utah won perhaps their biggest challenge of the season, on the road at USC in an absolute nail-biter.  I haven't started publishing projections yet this year but am running them.  My projection was Utah by 1.3, but I honestly didn't really believe it.  The win was enough to move us up to 12th overall and to knock USC to 33rd.

One major difference between my system and David Burge's Marble Game is that there is no differentiating of teams before the season starts. In the Marble Game, teams start the season with a number of marbles based on their perceived strength of schedule.  This system assumes nothing, which is also why it takes longer for this to converge to something logical.  This is not a knock on either system, both have proven their merits of course, but what this does result in is situations where JMU is 6th over here and barely into the top 25 in the Marble Game. Do I think JMU is the 6th best football team in the country? Not remotely. Are they top 25? Perhaps. If anything this is a knock on my system for not being better at parsing JMU from say Oklahoma (5th overall), but unfortunately, unless JMU plays people that Oklahoma also plays, that becomes difficult.  There are still many weeks left, so here's hoping the system finds the right connections and we get an order that makes more believable sense. Here's also hoping JMU can win out and bring chaos to the whole thing!

Rank	Team	W	L	Conf	RTPS	Delta
1	Ohio State	7	0	B10	1.000	+2
2	Michigan	8	0	B10	0.990	+2
3	Florida St.	7	0	ACC	0.982	+3
4	Texas	6	1	B12	0.950	-2
5	Oklahoma	7	0	B12	0.948	-4
6	JMU	7	0	SUN	0.902	+3
7	Alabama	7	1	SEC	0.882	+5
8	Wash.	7	0	PAC	0.838	-1
9	Oregon St.	6	1	PAC	0.823	+4
10	Ole Miss	6	1	SEC	0.822	0
11	Notre Dame	6	2	IND	0.822	0
12	Utah	6	1	PAC	0.806	+10
13	Liberty	7	0	USA	0.792	+1
14	Penn State	6	1	B10	0.788	-9
15	Georgia	7	0	SEC	0.784	0
16	Missouri	7	1	SEC	0.771	+1
17	Air Force	7	0	MWC	0.748	+2
18	LSU	6	2	SEC	0.746	+2
19	Louisville	6	1	ACC	0.734	+2
20	N. Carolina	6	1	ACC	0.723	-12
21	Oregon	6	1	PAC	0.723	+2
22	Troy	5	2	SUN	0.713	+2
23	Tulane	6	1	AAC	0.707	+2
24	Georgia St.	6	1	SUN	0.699	+4
25	Kansas St.	5	2	B12	0.699	+5
26	Wisconsin	5	2	B10	0.685	0
27	Iowa	6	2	B10	0.672	-11
28	Duke	5	2	ACC	0.670	-10
29	UCLA	5	2	PAC	0.643	+2
30	Oklahoma St.	5	2	B12	0.638	+21
31	Toledo	7	1	MID	0.634	+16
32	Tennessee	5	2	SEC	0.627	0
33	USC	6	2	PAC	0.625	-6
34	Kansas	5	2	B12	0.607	+3
35	Wyoming	5	2	MWC	0.604	-1
36	Minnesota	4	3	B10	0.603	+10
37	Miami (FL)	5	2	ACC	0.600	-4
38	Kentucky	5	2	SEC	0.598	+2
39	Florida	5	2	SEC	0.589	+2
40	UNLV	6	1	MWC	0.586	+3
41	Rutgers	6	2	B10	0.585	+3
42	Fresno St.	6	1	MWC	0.580	-3
43	Memphis	5	2	AAC	0.573	-1
44	Clemson	4	3	ACC	0.572	-15
45	Iowa State	4	3	B12	0.572	-7
46	Georgia So.	5	2	SUN	0.564	+8
47	Jacksonville St.	6	2	USA	0.552	+6
48	Miami (OH)	6	2	MID	0.544	-12
49	Wash. St.	4	3	PAC	0.540	-14
50	Maryland	5	2	B10	0.537	+2
51	Coastal Caro.	4	3	SUN	0.533	+10
52	Arizona	4	3	PAC	0.531	-4
53	Nebraska	4	3	B10	0.531	+14
54	Texas A&M	4	3	SEC	0.518	+2
55	Ohio	6	2	MID	0.514	0
56	S. Alabama	4	3	SUN	0.512	+4
57	BC	4	3	ACC	0.500	+19
58	NC State	4	3	ACC	0.499	-1
59	TCU	4	4	B12	0.493	-10
60	W. Kentucky	4	3	USA	0.492	-10
61	SMU	5	2	AAC	0.488	+1
62	Texas State	5	2	SUN	0.481	+2
63	Syracuse	4	3	ACC	0.477	-5
64	Colorado	4	3	PAC	0.477	-1
65	Marshall	4	3	SUN	0.477	-6
66	BYU	5	2	B12	0.474	+3
67	W. Virginia	4	3	B12	0.473	-22
68	UL Lafayette	4	3	SUN	0.458	0
69	Miss. St.	4	3	SEC	0.448	+6
70	Bowling Grn	4	4	MID	0.438	+2
71	Georgia Tech	3	4	ACC	0.421	-6
72	N. Illinois	4	4	MID	0.417	+17
73	UTSA	4	3	USA	0.401	+22
74	Auburn	3	4	SEC	0.394	0
75	California	3	4	PAC	0.393	+2
76	NW	3	4	B10	0.393	-10
77	ODU	4	3	SUN	0.392	+23
78	Virginia Tech	3	4	ACC	0.388	+6
79	Virginia	2	5	ACC	0.386	+37
80	Texas Tech	3	5	B12	0.377	-7
81	San Jose St.	3	5	MWC	0.375	+22
82	NM St.	5	3	USA	0.360	+20
83	Wake Forest	4	3	ACC	0.360	+15
84	S. Carolina	2	5	SEC	0.358	-5
85	Mich. St.	2	5	B10	0.355	-3
86	Purdue	2	5	B10	0.352	+4
87	Navy	3	4	AAC	0.351	+9
88	UCF	3	4	B12	0.350	+3
89	Illinois	3	5	B10	0.348	-2
90	Boise State	3	4	MWC	0.345	-5
91	Baylor	3	4	B12	0.341	+14
92	App. St.	3	4	SUN	0.340	-14
93	Arkansas St.	3	4	SUN	0.339	-12
94	Utah State	3	5	MWC	0.338	-23
95	E. Mich.	4	4	MID	0.324	-9
96	Tulsa	3	4	AAC	0.323	-26
97	Indiana	2	5	B10	0.318	-3
98	Houston	3	4	B12	0.312	+1
99	Buffalo	3	5	MID	0.305	+8
100	Rice	4	3	USA	0.303	+15
101	Florida Atl.	3	4	USA	0.301	-21
102	Colorado St.	3	4	MWC	0.301	-10
103	Stanford	2	5	PAC	0.296	-15
104	C. Mich.	4	4	MID	0.286	-7
105	North Texas	3	4	USA	0.273	+1
106	Pittsburgh	2	5	ACC	0.270	-5
107	San Diego St.	3	5	MWC	0.267	-24
108	Vanderbilt	2	6	SEC	0.265	0
109	Arkansas	2	6	SEC	0.263	-5
110	S. Florida	4	4	AAC	0.263	+1
111	Florida Int.	4	4	USA	0.262	+3
112	Cincinnati	2	5	B12	0.252	-19
113	Army	2	5	IND	0.251	-1
114	UAB	2	6	USA	0.247	-4
115	Mid. Tenn.	2	6	USA	0.238	-6
116	New Mexico	3	4	MWC	0.235	+10
117	W. Michigan	2	6	MID	0.232	-4
118	Charlotte	2	5	USA	0.209	+6
119	Nevada	1	6	MWC	0.208	+8
120	Arizona St.	1	6	PAC	0.199	0
121	LA Tech	3	5	USA	0.195	-4
122	UL Monroe	2	5	SUN	0.189	-4
123	Ball State	2	6	MID	0.174	+6
124	S. Miss.	1	6	SUN	0.149	-3
125	UTEP	2	6	USA	0.146	-3
126	Connecticut	1	6	IND	0.117	-1
127	Hawaii	2	6	MWC	0.111	-8
128	UMASS	1	7	IND	0.085	0
129	Temple	2	6	AAC	0.068	+1
130	Sam Houston	0	7	USA	0.063	+1
131	E. Carolina	1	6	AAC	0.054	-8
132	Kent State	1	7	MID	0.000	0
133	Akron	1	7	MID	0.000	0

Hardest Schedule Played per Team:

S. Carolina	46.4
Purdue	46.6
Minnesota	48.7
Illinois	49.4
Virginia	51.0
Mich. St.	52.3
Texas	52.9
Wash. St.	53.3
Indiana	54.3
Arizona St.	55.1
:	:
:	:
North Texas	97.1
Ohio	97.3
Toledo	99.0
SMU	99.6
Rice	99.9
UNLV	102.4
Fresno St.	102.9
Texas State	104.4
Florida Int.	104.5
NM St.	110.5

Average Rank per Conference:

PAC	47.9
SEC	48.1
B10	48.8
ACC	53.3
B12	57.4
SUN	64.9
MWC	80.8
AAC	85.0
MID	89.9
USA	94.3
IND	94.5

Hardest Cumulative Schedules Played per Conference:

B10	62.6
PAC	67.3
IND	68.0
ACC	68.1
SEC	68.4
B12	70.2
SUN	77.9
MWC	82.0
AAC	84.5
MID	86.2
USA	86.3