Last week I made projections on a total of 47 games and picked the correct side of the Vegas spread in 28 of them. That's a correct pick rate of 59.6%. I'll take it. That's good enough to make money on! If I had made the exact same bet on every game, picking based on my prediction as the correct side of the spread, I would have had a return of 13.7% on my investment (21*28)/(11*47).
This week I have projections on 53 games below. This is for entertainment purposes only, I do not recommend making actual bets based on this.
Utah is showing as only a 10.5 point favorite from the odds setters. I would think that coming off that embarrassing loss last week that they will show up big today and make a statement on ASU. I'm showing a 19 point win, but with a high uncertainty. My gut says 19+ is perfectly reasonable.
| Away | Home | Vegas | Spread Proj. | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | Florida | -3.0 | -12.4 | 11.1 |
| Jax St. | S. Carolina | -14.5 | 12.8 | 5.1 |
| Kansas St. | Texas | -3.0 | -5.0 | 0.1 |
| Notre Dame | Clemson | 3.5 | 16.4 | 5.8 |
| Nebraska | Mich. St. | 3.5 | 15.1 | 3.1 |
| Ohio State | Rutgers | 19.0 | 12.2 | 1.5 |
| Texas A&M | Ole Miss | -3.0 | -12.4 | 1.9 |
| UConn | Tennessee | -35.0 | -24.5 | 11.2 |
| Wisconsin | Indiana | 8.0 | 17.7 | 1.8 |
| Arizona St. | Utah | -10.5 | -19.1 | 8.9 |
| Georgia Tech | Virginia | -1.0 | 8.7 | 1.4 |
| Navy | Temple | 7.0 | 13.6 | 2.5 |
| Army | Air Force | -18.0 | -29.9 | 2.7 |
| FAU | UAB | PK | 7.7 | 3.6 |
| S. Florida | Memphis | -13.5 | -17.6 | 1.3 |
| UTSA | N. Texas | 8.0 | 10.5 | 2.6 |
| Louisiana | Ark. St. | 7.0 | 8.4 | 3.3 |
| C. Carolina | ODU | -1.0 | 11.2 | 1.2 |
| Florida St. | Pittsburgh | 21.5 | 29.4 | 3.1 |
| Houston | Baylor | -2.5 | 2.1 | 0.1 |
| Illinois | Minnesota | -2.5 | -15.3 | 2.5 |
| Iowa | NW | 5.0 | 10.6 | 1.1 |
| JMU | Georgia St. | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 |
| Missouri | Georgia | -14.5 | -1.3 | 0.4 |
| Oklahoma | Ok. State | 5.0 | 5.3 | 0.7 |
| Penn State | Maryland | 8.0 | 19.9 | 6.8 |
| Tulane | E. Carolina | 17.0 | 26.6 | 9.8 |
| UCF | Cincinnati | 3.5 | 6.8 | 1.1 |
| Virginia Tech | Louisville | -9.0 | -12.2 | 5.6 |
| Auburn | Vanderbilt | 12.5 | 15.4 | 0.7 |
| Charlotte | Tulsa | -4.0 | -6.5 | 1.8 |
| Hawaii | Nevada | -3.5 | -6.0 | 0.3 |
| UL-Monroe | So. Miss | -3.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| Ga. So. | Texas St. | -2.5 | 10.8 | 0.2 |
| California | Oregon | -25.5 | -22.8 | 5.4 |
| LA Tech | Liberty | -14.0 | -27.1 | 9.9 |
| Marshall | App. St. | -3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| Mid Tenn. | NM St. | -3.0 | -11.0 | 3.8 |
| UNLV | UNM | 14.0 | 23.0 | 2.3 |
| BYU | W. Virginia | -12.0 | -2.5 | 0.3 |
| Kansas | Iowa St. | -3.0 | 4.0 | 0.8 |
| Utah St. | San Diego St. | 2.0 | 4.1 | 0.6 |
| Purdue | Michigan | -32.5 | -30.0 | 5.2 |
| SMU | Rice | 12.5 | 16.3 | 3.8 |
| Kentucky | Miss. State | 5.0 | 9.6 | 2.6 |
| Wash. | USC | 3.0 | 7.5 | 1.4 |
| LSU | Alabama | -3.0 | -3.7 | 0.4 |
| Miami (Fla.) | NC State | 6.0 | 4.7 | 0.6 |
| Stanford | Wash. St. | -13.5 | -4.5 | 0.2 |
| W. Kentucky | UTEP | 9.5 | 17.3 | 1.1 |
| Boise St. | Fresno St. | -2.5 | -10.1 | 2.8 |
| Oregon St. | Colorado | 13.0 | 13.0 | 2.3 |
| UCLA | Arizona | 2.5 | 5.0 | 1.1 |
Largest Spread of the Week
| Purdue | Michigan | -32.5 | -30.0 | 5.2 |
|---|
Tightest Spread of the Week
| UL-Monroe | So. Miss | -3.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
|---|
Highest Regression Uncertainty of the Week
| UConn | Tennessee | -35.0 | -24.5 | 11.2 |
|---|
Least Regression Uncertainty of the Week
| Kansas St. | Texas | -3.0 | -5.0 | 0.1 |
|---|
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