The #4, #5, and #6 teams from last week's rankings (here) all lost---falling to 7th, 9th, and 12th, respectively---thus opening the door for USC to ascend to a playoff spot. All four of the top teams are in their respective conference championships next week, so things could change.... but will they?
TCU vs Kansas St: TCU will have either 829 or 602 marbles. K St can get to 529 with a win.
Michigan vs Purdue: Michigan will have either 770 or 571 marbles. Purdue can get to 423.
Georgia vs LSU: Georgia will have either 728 or 524 marbles. LSU can get to 496.
USC vs Utah: USC will have either 579 or 418 marbles. Utah can get to 389.
So, even if TCU loses and the other three win, TCU will still be 3rd and Kansas St won't be in.
Even if Michigan loses and the others win, they'll still be 4th and Purdue won't be in.
If Georgia loses and the others win, they'll be 4th and LSU won't be in.
If USC loses, they will definitely fall out behind Washington.
There are obviously a variety of other possible outcomes here, but there are none that eliminate TCU or Michigan. Georgia could be eliminated if they lose and TCU loses and USC wins. That would result in a TCU, Michigan, USC, and Kansas St being the top 4.
Clemson cannot get into the top 4.
LSU can make it by USC losing and TCU winning and beating UGA.
Hopefully I have that all right. Let me know if you see errors. Message David or me on Twitter if you have questions or discussion.
The final regular season rankings based on the NEMindex can be found here, if you're interested.
| | Team | W | L | Conf | Marbles | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TCU | 12 | 0 | B12 | 753 | 0,+11 |
| 2 | Michigan | 12 | 0 | B10 | 714 | +1,+136 |
| 3 | Georgia | 12 | 0 | SEC | 655 | -1,+39 |
| 4 | USC | 11 | 1 | PAC | 522 | +3,+84 |
| 5 | Wash. | 10 | 2 | PAC | 463 | +4,+50 |
| 6 | Alabama | 10 | 2 | SEC | 412 | +5,+19 |
| 7 | Ohio State | 11 | 1 | B10 | 409 | -3,-136 |
| 8 | Tennessee | 10 | 2 | SEC | 396 | +4,+36 |
| 9 | Clemson | 10 | 2 | ACC | 380 | -4,-127 |
| 10 | Kansas St. | 9 | 3 | B12 | 378 | +3,+28 |
| 11 | S. Carolina | 8 | 4 | SEC | 369 | +12,+127 |
| 12 | LSU | 9 | 3 | SEC | 365 | -6,-91 |
| 13 | Penn State | 10 | 2 | B10 | 348 | +1,+30 |
| 14 | Notre Dame | 8 | 4 | IND | 334 | -6,-84 |
| 15 | Oregon | 9 | 3 | PAC | 320 | -5,-80 |
| 16 | Oregon St. | 9 | 3 | PAC | 290 | +12,+80 |
| 17 | Texas | 8 | 4 | B12 | 287 | +4,+32 |
| 18 | Florida St. | 9 | 3 | ACC | 285 | +1,+27 |
| 19 | Utah | 9 | 3 | PAC | 285 | -2,+7 |
| 20 | Purdue | 8 | 4 | B10 | 280 | 0,+24 |
| 21 | Tulane | 10 | 2 | AAC | 256 | +11,+58 |
| 22 | Troy | 10 | 2 | SUN | 254 | 0,+6 |
| 23 | Pittsburgh | 8 | 4 | ACC | 245 | +4,+25 |
| 24 | NC State | 8 | 4 | ACC | 239 | +19,+73 |
| 25 | UTSA | 10 | 2 | USA | 238 | 0,+13 |
| 26 | N. Carolina | 9 | 3 | ACC | 219 | -11,-73 |
| 27 | UCLA | 9 | 3 | PAC | 218 | +3,+15 |
| 28 | Miss. St. | 8 | 4 | SEC | 212 | +20,+52 |
| 29 | Iowa | 7 | 5 | B10 | 208 | -13,-70 |
| 30 | Louisville | 7 | 5 | ACC | 208 | -12,-52 |
| 31 | Texas Tech | 7 | 5 | B12 | 205 | +10,+34 |
| 32 | Ohio | 9 | 3 | MID | 202 | +5,+24 |
| 33 | S. Alabama | 10 | 2 | SUN | 202 | 0,+7 |
| 34 | Duke | 8 | 4 | ACC | 200 | +10,+36 |
| 35 | UCF | 9 | 3 | AAC | 197 | 0,+3 |
| 36 | Minnesota | 8 | 4 | B10 | 195 | +15,+44 |
| 37 | Boise State | 9 | 3 | MWC | 191 | +5,+22 |
| 38 | Coastal Caro. | 9 | 2 | SUN | 179 | -12,-45 |
| 39 | Kentucky | 7 | 5 | SEC | 179 | +21,+52 |
| 40 | J. Madison | 8 | 3 | SUN | 177 | +18,+45 |
| 41 | Cincinnati | 9 | 3 | AAC | 172 | -17,-58 |
| 42 | Illinois | 8 | 4 | B10 | 169 | +3,+5 |
| 43 | Air Force | 9 | 3 | MWC | 162 | +16,+31 |
| 44 | Marshall | 8 | 4 | SUN | 157 | +10,+14 |
| 45 | Georgia Tech | 5 | 7 | ACC | 155 | -11,-39 |
| 46 | Ole Miss | 8 | 4 | SEC | 154 | -17,-52 |
| 47 | Fresno St. | 8 | 4 | MWC | 152 | +10,+20 |
| 48 | Wash. St. | 7 | 5 | PAC | 149 | -17,-50 |
| 49 | Texas A&M | 5 | 7 | SEC | 147 | +54,+91 |
| 50 | Wake Forest | 7 | 5 | ACC | 142 | -12,-36 |
| 51 | Oklahoma St. | 7 | 5 | B12 | 141 | -15,-47 |
| 52 | Oklahoma | 6 | 6 | B12 | 138 | -12,-34 |
| 53 | Missouri | 6 | 6 | SEC | 137 | +18,+31 |
| 54 | BYU | 7 | 5 | IND | 132 | +9,+15 |
| 55 | W. Virginia | 5 | 7 | B12 | 132 | +30,+47 |
| 56 | Syracuse | 7 | 5 | ACC | 131 | +12,+23 |
| 57 | Wisconsin | 6 | 6 | B10 | 131 | -18,-44 |
| 58 | Baylor | 6 | 6 | B12 | 128 | -11,-32 |
| 59 | Arkansas | 6 | 6 | SEC | 122 | -9,-31 |
| 60 | E. Mich. | 8 | 4 | MID | 122 | +5,+11 |
| 61 | Liberty | 8 | 4 | IND | 121 | -15,-41 |
| 62 | W. Kentucky | 8 | 5 | USA | 120 | +13,+19 |
| 63 | Arizona | 5 | 7 | PAC | 119 | +4,+10 |
| 64 | Mich. St. | 5 | 7 | B10 | 118 | -12,-30 |
| 65 | Maryland | 7 | 5 | B10 | 116 | +5,+10 |
| 66 | Nebraska | 4 | 8 | B10 | 116 | +46,+70 |
| 67 | Houston | 7 | 5 | AAC | 115 | -18,-39 |
| 68 | Connecticut | 6 | 6 | IND | 114 | -4,0 |
| 69 | Kansas | 6 | 6 | B12 | 111 | -14,-28 |
| 70 | Mid. Tenn. | 7 | 5 | USA | 109 | +4,+8 |
| 71 | Vanderbilt | 5 | 7 | SEC | 108 | -18,-36 |
| 72 | Florida | 6 | 6 | SEC | 107 | -16,-27 |
| 73 | North Texas | 7 | 5 | USA | 107 | +6,+12 |
| 74 | SMU | 7 | 5 | AAC | 107 | +9,+13 |
| 75 | E. Carolina | 7 | 5 | AAC | 103 | +3,+6 |
| 76 | Navy | 4 | 7 | AAC | 102 | -3,0 |
| 77 | San Jose St. | 7 | 4 | MWC | 99 | +5,+5 |
| 78 | Bowling Grn | 6 | 6 | MID | 98 | -16,-24 |
| 79 | San Diego St. | 7 | 5 | MWC | 93 | -18,-31 |
| 80 | NM St. | 5 | 6 | IND | 90 | +31,+41 |
| 81 | Georgia So. | 6 | 6 | SUN | 89 | +8,+16 |
| 82 | Utah State | 6 | 6 | MWC | 89 | -16,-22 |
| 83 | Toledo | 7 | 5 | MID | 86 | -14,-21 |
| 84 | Virginia Tech | 3 | 8 | ACC | 84 | +2,0 |
| 85 | Kent State | 5 | 7 | MID | 81 | +20,+26 |
| 86 | Wyoming | 7 | 5 | MWC | 81 | -10,-20 |
| 87 | Buffalo | 5 | 6 | MID | 79 | -15,-26 |
| 88 | S. Miss. | 6 | 6 | SUN | 79 | +8,+16 |
| 89 | UAB | 6 | 6 | USA | 77 | +2,+9 |
| 90 | Auburn | 5 | 7 | SEC | 75 | -10,-19 |
| 91 | UL Lafayette | 6 | 6 | SUN | 75 | +1,+10 |
| 92 | Miami (OH) | 6 | 6 | MID | 75 | +1,+10 |
| 93 | W. Michigan | 5 | 7 | MID | 75 | +13,+21 |
| 94 | Miami (FL) | 5 | 7 | ACC | 73 | -17,-25 |
| 95 | Tulsa | 5 | 7 | AAC | 71 | +24,+39 |
| 96 | Indiana | 4 | 8 | B10 | 70 | -15,-24 |
| 97 | BC | 3 | 9 | ACC | 67 | -13,-23 |
| 98 | App. St. | 6 | 6 | SUN | 63 | -11,-16 |
| 99 | Army | 5 | 6 | IND | 62 | 0,+3 |
| 100 | Georgia St. | 4 | 8 | SUN | 56 | -10,-14 |
| 101 | Virginia | 3 | 7 | ACC | 56 | +3,0 |
| 102 | Florida Atl. | 5 | 7 | USA | 55 | -14,-19 |
| 103 | UTEP | 5 | 7 | USA | 52 | -9,-13 |
| 104 | Memphis | 6 | 6 | AAC | 51 | -9,-13 |
| 105 | California | 4 | 8 | PAC | 46 | -7,-15 |
| 106 | UL Monroe | 4 | 8 | SUN | 46 | -9,-16 |
| 107 | Rice | 5 | 7 | USA | 46 | -6,-12 |
| 108 | Iowa State | 4 | 8 | B12 | 45 | -6,-11 |
| 109 | Stanford | 3 | 9 | PAC | 44 | -9,-15 |
| 110 | Arizona St. | 3 | 9 | PAC | 42 | -2,-10 |
| 111 | Ball State | 5 | 7 | MID | 42 | -2,-10 |
| 112 | C. Mich. | 4 | 8 | MID | 42 | -5,-11 |
| 113 | Rutgers | 4 | 8 | B10 | 41 | -3,-10 |
| 114 | Charlotte | 3 | 9 | USA | 40 | 0,0 |
| 115 | UNLV | 5 | 7 | MWC | 36 | +3,+3 |
| 116 | Texas State | 4 | 8 | SUN | 31 | -3,-10 |
| 117 | Old Dom. | 3 | 9 | SUN | 30 | 0,-7 |
| 118 | LA Tech | 3 | 9 | USA | 28 | -2,-9 |
| 119 | N. Illinois | 3 | 9 | MID | 28 | -4,-10 |
| 120 | Colorado St. | 3 | 9 | MWC | 25 | +4,+3 |
| 121 | Akron | 2 | 9 | MID | 22 | +8,+10 |
| 122 | Florida Int. | 4 | 8 | USA | 22 | -2,-8 |
| 123 | Colorado | 1 | 11 | PAC | 20 | -2,-7 |
| 124 | Arkansas St. | 3 | 9 | SUN | 19 | -2,-6 |
| 125 | Hawaii | 3 | 10 | MWC | 19 | -2,-5 |
| 126 | Temple | 3 | 9 | AAC | 16 | -1,-6 |
| 127 | Nevada | 2 | 10 | MWC | 13 | 0,-3 |
| 128 | NW | 1 | 11 | B10 | 13 | -2,-5 |
| 129 | New Mexico | 2 | 10 | MWC | 10 | -1,-3 |
| 130 | UMASS | 1 | 11 | IND | 7 | 0,-3 |
| 131 | S. Florida | 1 | 11 | AAC | 7 | 0,-3 |
Average rank of all opponents played per team:
| Colorado | 37.0 |
|---|---|
| Iowa State | 44.8 |
| Auburn | 45.0 |
| Florida | 45.5 |
| Stanford | 45.8 |
| Texas | 47.7 |
| Arkansas | 48.6 |
| Syracuse | 48.8 |
| Northwestern | 49.4 |
| Georgia Tech | 50.4 |
| : | : |
| : | : |
| Coastal Caro. | 90.2 |
| Toledo | 91.1 |
| Mid. Tenn. | 93.4 |
| S. Alabama | 94.5 |
| Ohio | 95.1 |
| North Texas | 96.1 |
| NM St. | 97.7 |
| San Jose St. | 99.6 |
| Air Force | 100.4 |
| E. Mich. | 106.2 |
Average rank of all teams per conference:
| SEC | 39.1 |
|---|---|
| B12 | 45.2 |
| ACC | 49.4 |
| B10 | 52.7 |
| PAC | 53.7 |
| IND | 72.3 |
| AAC | 76.8 |
| SUN | 78.4 |
| MWC | 88.9 |
| MID | 89.4 |
| USA | 89.5 |
Average rank of all opponents played per conference:
| B12 | 54.5 |
|---|---|
| SEC | 55.0 |
| ACC | 58.8 |
| PAC | 59.1 |
| B10 | 63.0 |
| AAC | 78.3 |
| IND | 79.5 |
| SUN | 80.9 |
| MID | 85.0 |
| MWC | 85.5 |
| USA | 86.4 |
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